July 27, 2016
By Mish Schneider
One culture’s positive sign is another culture’s ominous one. One market instrument’s auspicious move from the policy of continuing low interest rates is another instrument’s reason for dread.
Although the symbol on the left has its oldest reference dating back over 10,000 years, the Navajos, as far back as 2000 years ago, used the design to represent whirling logs. It is a sacred image that was part of their healing rituals. Needless to say, in the 20th Century this symbol’s favorable message changed intensely.
Such is the case with the low interest rate environment and what it symbolizes depending upon whose perspective.
Silver and Gold had explosive moves higher after the FOMC annoucement. I purposely used this extremely controversial symbol to illustrate the double-edged sword the dovish Fed’s policy has and will continue to have over time.
Yes, the good news first. The Dow’s ETF DIA is holding 183.70. After yesterday’s exploration of a runaway gap now filled, we have an excellent point of demarcation.
Semiconductors SMH, with its exemplary not one but two runaway gaps, looked a bit dicey early on. However, after the FOMC, she may not have closed on the highs, but she did not give us any pause that an exhaustion gap is in play. At least not yet.
The Russell 2000, a textbook example of rising out of a 10-day consolidation pattern, closed higher still.
So, what’s the bad news?
I like unity. The Modern Family has had so many issues staying together this year. For instance, Retail, literally 70% of the GDP, has relunctantly participated in this rally. At this point best we can say is XRT remains in an Accumulation Phase. With major resistance overhead, it would take a lot more upside in other areas for XRT to be convinced to keep going up.
Transportation IYT looks even worse. Although in a Bullish Phase, the price action suggests it’s only there by default. Furthermore, I’d call Regional Banks more of a swing sector. It too has rallied. It too has rallied right into resistance. Too soon to make a bold call one way or another.
Biotechnology IBB, our speculative sector, will have the ultimate test at 290. Like the pharmaceuticals this sector represents, over 290, all who ingest will start to feel wiggy.
The Fed keeps saying that worries about the economy peppered with only certain improvements are their main concerns. They also worry about Europe and they have to be thinking about swelling geo-political issues as well.
My biggest concern lies with the falling Treasury yields and commodities. I have done several Daily’s on this subject. (Click on the word Daily to see a comprehensive analysis I did in June).
It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when inflation, a concept that rarely behaves in an orderly fashion, becomes the elephant in the room.
So, while the Federal Reserve behaves like whirling logs, how the symbol interprets-auspiciously or dreadfully, definitely has my full attention.
S&P 500 (SPY) 215.80 the 10 DMA closest support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 119.85 should now hold on a closing basis if this is to continue
Dow (DIA) Second close beneath the 10 DMA. 183.70 big support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 112.75 the 10 DMA with today’s strong close near the resistance at 115
XLF (Financials) Consolidation mode continues
KRE (Regional Banks) Must end this week over 40.40 to change longer term trend to up
SMH (Semiconductors) 62.32 is the gap high to hold. Might see digestion, might see exhaustion. Still prepared for anything
IYT (Transportation) 143 pivotal 137.80 support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Closed right at 287-consider that a pivotal number
XRT (Retail) Must clear 45.80 for the month to be a game changer
IYR (Real Estate) closed under the 10 DMA. 82.00 next support and back over 84.50 better
ITB (US Home Construction) 29.35 now support to hold
GLD (Gold Trust) Cleared 126.75 and still has a small gap to fill to 129.16
SLV (Silver) 18.90 now support. 19.45 recent highs. More importantly, a weekly close over 19.11 is bullish
GDX (Gold Miners) 29.15 now support
USO (US Oil Fund) 9.79 is the 4/18 swing low.
OIH (Oil Services) If closes over 28.00 still a contender
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 22.20 and a close above very positive
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) The trend is your friend til its not
UUP (Dollar Bull) Back below the 200 DMA.
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) China looking better in a consolidation mode
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