March 26, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Not too crazy about a weakening US dollar for the ultimate best case scenario (the one where the improving US economic recovery takes the credit for the rally). Nonetheless, since we have been long across many groups and sectors since 2012 began, ours is not to question why.
NASDAQ (QQQ) A gap higher and away we go. For those of you who never saw one before, please note a sideways time correction coupled with an end of week inside day, even after an ominous looking one day candle last week. Maybe you are not long; but goodness people, I hope you are not short.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 target, of course provided 140 holds
The Dow (DIA) 132.61 high March 16th. Could mean has more catching up to do. Could also mean like last week, a sign of Turnaround Tuesday. An unconfirmed island bottom after gap so today’s low key.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed right at March 19th high after clearing it intraday. 83.30 back to the pivotal area to hold, but it looks pretty awesome.
ETFs:
GLD Island bottom, back over the 200 DMA. Do I hear the 50 DMA?
XLF (Financials) Guess that hold of 15.50 was the end of the correction. New multi-year highs
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs, no surprise
SMH (Semiconductors) Gave a gift today when it gapped open higher, tested the intraday low, then took off. 36.12, last swing high in 2008, but that should not be an issue now.
XRT (Retail) Never doubted this group as the leader. Daily readers of this can attest to that
IYT (Transportation)Gapped above the 50 DMA and stopped for now at the fast moving average. Changing target to 100.00
IYR (Real Estate) Here’s the rub. In a solvent US economy, this group has to be involved to sustain rallies.
XLE (Energy) Bounce off of the key weekly moving average. Still a good sector to go to if market weakens. OIH (Oil Services) even better place to go if market weakens.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Did not chase, which was a good thing. However, have not taken my eyes off of this level for a long re entry.
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