May 17, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Once again, biggest clue Wednesday, just like Tuesday, was that S&P 500 (SPY) could not clear previous day high. Nor could DIA, QQQ or IWM. So market may be oversold, but the scenarios I have laid out for watching for a potential bottom have not come to fruition-not yet.
S&P 500 (SPY) Touched down on the EMA as it continues in oversold territory. Also filled a gap from 02/03/12.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Never gapped higher back in February. Been looking at 75.50 as next support. Oversold with no classic signs of bottoming at this time
Dow (DIA) Most promising or should I say most clarifying perhaps since this had an inside day. Really oversold daily RSI
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) With RSIs extremely oversold, would not look to short, rather, wait to see when signs of bottoming action emerges.
GLD 148.27 last swing low 12/29/2011
XLF (Financials) Won't make a move in this until it is clear that it can close back above the 200 Weekly moving average or it cannot. 14.40 is a swing area
IBB (Biotechnology) Until it crosses 126.90, that area could wind up as triple tops. Wednesday turned out as an inside day
SMH (Semiconductors) Could not hold 32.15 so now we look at the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Held 59.00 with an inside day-but unless it gets back over 60.08, no reason to cheer
IYT (Transportation) I continue to watch in amazement how well 91.00 is holding.
IYR (Real Estate) Became a short under 63.00 and now sliced through the 50 DMA. 61.70 next area of support
USO (US Oil Fund) oversold and clearly getting more oversold
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Weekly RSIs very oversold-can rates go to zero?
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