July 15, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
J.D. Salinger
An interesting surprise to begin the week with the market shrugging off any geopolitical or European banking issues and going the way of the World Cup looking for a goal!
I find value in examining the consistent indicators I watch, therefore, making no exception today.
IWM or the Russell 2000s are still very much a concern. Although they held the 50 DMA and closed up for the session, the 116 pivotal area could not hold. Furthermore, add the weakness of the Retail and Homebuilder sectors and it makes one wonder which team one should play for.
The 20-Year long bonds fell (or rates firmed), but TLTs did not break any significant moving averages. We could consider this action digestion.
Semiconductors definitely negated the topping action and closed above the 50.55 pivotal area we were watching for.
China performed super great but with the large gap higher, left the risk a bit uncertain. The Solar ETF could use another day to clarify whether or not it wants to hold and the Regional Bank ETF struggled even in the face of a strong Financial sector. If you recall over the weekend, I had China to win, Solars to place and Regional Banks to show!
Of course the media will love the Dow back over 17,000 but other than feel-good fluff, that number does not hold much water. Tuesdays have been reversal days for the last several months (and not in a good way). A reversal of that reversal day could renew real confidence. If not, back to the summer chop mixed with some unusual volatility for this time of year.
S&P 500 (SPY) 198 now the point to clear to see perhaps that 220 mark provided nothing catastrophic happens
Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.24 will be an important support point to hold and of course, 116 to clear once and for all
Dow (DIA) Made a new high intraday and closed just shy of it
Nasdaq (QQQ) New 2014 high close even if it’s just barely
XLF (Financials) 22.75 now support to hold if the key bank stocks left to report do as Citicorp did
KRE (Regional Banks) Didn’t do much but doesn’t mean that it won’t
IYT (Transportation) New highs should take this to around 160
XRT (Retail) Without retail hard to get excited
ITB (US Home Construction) This is definitely going the wrong way for a bull market
GLD Cannot really say much until this breaks the 50 and 200 DMAs
USO (US Oil Fund) Worked off some oversold conditions
EEM (Emerging Markets) Possible island bottom if holds the 200 DMA
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