July 29, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I was a Commodities trader on the NY Commodities Exchanges for years. I never thought I would live to see a world where the US stock market swings 100 points plus per day like a hot future does. Some important lessons I learned while there: listen to nobody's "opinion", buy/sell the rumors, taking partial profits before the sobering news lets on and-do not be afraid to follow the signals. Even when they fail, eventually, if consistent, they work. And if you understand risk, the rewards will be so much more the sweeter!
S&P 500 (SPY) A significant accumulation day in volume-2 in a row ending last week. 138.99 is a gap fill from 5/03/12. Closed beneath it after filling it Friday afternoon-so much for summer doldrums! Wouldn't read too much into high RSI’s now. Rather see what happens at 139.00 and follow accordingly.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Startling hold of the 200 DMA. Resistance is first at 79.81, a gap yet to be filled, then all the way to 81.84 July 5th high. So although action was great, more to prove here.
Dow (DIA) After the island it left behind on Thursday, not to be undone, this too has a gap to fill to 131.50 also from 5/03.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 65.25-65.31 last swing high to clear. Then, corresponding gap is to 66.18. In all 4 indexes, the phase is bullish meaning dips are presented as buy opportunities.
ETFs:
GLD a couple of days of a dip here and this will look like a fresh buy signal.
XLF (Financials) 14.85 last swing high. Nobody who reads this daily can say I have not been all over this group since 2012 began.
IBB (Biotechnology) A textbook bull run.
SMH (Semiconductors) Right up to the 200 DMA. Should be real interesting to see if the semis are at this party or not.
IYR (Real Estate) 65.20 super important now-if holds good sign, if not, respect that.
USO (US Oil Fund) Could not fill the gap and underperformed the market.
XLE (Energy) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
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