Past Is Present When You Carry It With You

February 3, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Sybil: The Classic True Story of a Woman Possessed by Sixteen Personalities Flora Schreiber

So here we are. One hibernating Groundhog and a Full Moon later we witness fear turn into hope and grow into glee. Now, worry should be right around the corner.

Why worry? This might have been so January, but those 6 month calendar ranges I have harped on? Well, still intact. Even though the Dow and S&P 500 had a brief trip beneath the lows on Monday, ultimately it’s the closing prices that count and both held the lows adeptly.

NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s (Identical twin of Sybil 2000s) never broke their lows and now are in the middle of that January Range. IWM is back over the 50 DMA once again in its too many times to count hop over/under the warning/bullish boundary. SPY joined in on that unconfirmed bullish phase during the final 20 minutes of trading.

Perhaps the most gleeful news for the market and for yours truly is the notoriety of volume surges that I have continually pointed out. These patterns statistically accompany tops and bottoms. Oil (USO) proved textbook worthy in predicting a bottom while currently, the Long 20 Year Bonds (TLTs) after its explosive volume, appears to have topped hence, joins that volume chapter in that textbook.

Concerning that corner piece of the puzzle the Financial Sector (XLF) that Monday’s volume confirmed on Tuesday. A reversal pattern off the lows that will look even better if it can hold above 23.75.

Back to why worry and the January 6 month Calendar Range highs. If recent history repeats itself, this run could be nothing more than another inevitable test of the top of the range which will in turn be met with selling. One cautionary tale-the volatility index remains in a positive phase with convergence around 31.50 (VXX). That’s the number to watch. What might be dissimilar however? You guessed it R-A-T-E-S!

S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed Bullish Phase by the skin of its teeth. 204.47 the 50 DMA to hold 202.75 a good support point and January high 206.88

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed Bullish Phase Sybil should not hold 117.33 the 50 DMA with the January high 120.56

Dow (DIA) Warning Nudged the 50 DMA, if gaps above Tuesday’s high will clear the 50 DMA. Support to hold now 174.50

Nasdaq (QQQ) Warning Phase Nudged the 50 DMA, if gaps above Tuesday’s high will clear the 50 DMA. Support to hold now 102.35

KRE (Regional Banks) Going to say noise until it clears 39.00

SMH (Semiconductors) Has a reversal pattern but really needs to clear 54.42

IBB (Biotechnology) Double the average volume Tuesday. Bounce off the 50 DMA with resistance back at 322.50 Support 315 to hold

XRT (Retail) Return to the bullish phase and have to see it clear 96.00

ITB (US Home Construction) Like over 26.16 now

GLD (Gold Trust) Under 120.34 could mean some more pressure in store

GDX (Gold Miners) Over 22.70 could be start of a good move higher

USO (US Oil Fund) Time for digestion

OIH (Oil Services) Over Tuesday high looks pretty good