January 14, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
F. Scott Fitzgerald
So far this year, after the market closes I typically walk around our house, gym, grocery store, restaurant-anywhere really, and pretty much until we say goodnight to one another, either muttering a combination of guttural sounds (geesh, oy, wow) or gesturing a number of facial expressions (rolling eyes, grimace, lip biting).
If these utterances and ticks surprise you coming from a relatively calm woman, I shall explain:
For those of you who aren’t hyper focused on the insanity moves in the stock market and for those of you who are focused but will enjoy seeing it in print nonetheless: In the last 2 trading sessions, the swings have fluctuated by over 400 points from up to down to down to more down from down to more up.
And that’s just the Dow!
I realize the bearish hysteria, if one charted hysteria, would look equally as volatile and tentative. However, in the scheme of things and in an attempt to maintain serenity, I still see a range bound market since the December low and late December or January high. We’re just not used to seeing significant ranges and their boundaries tested in quite this rapid a time. (Enter spinning planets.)
Friday will be the start of a six month calendar range which will most likely have a basis similar to the December to January range. The market remains in a weak warning phase. Until that range rectifies, we could just as easily blast off to new highs as sink down to October 2014 lows.
“There is nothing more harrowing than a deadly hush with the feel of a great noise around it”
― Jessie Douglas Kerruish, The Undying Monster: A Tale of the Fifth Dimension
S&P 500 (SPY) 200.50 which was the support I was looking for, was violated intraday but then, closed above it. After this week, at this point, to get friendlier, have to see that level hold and the SPY clear over 201.80
Russell 2000 (IWM) Have to respect that range between the December low and January high. Now if climbs over 118 also have to respect that
Dow (DIA) If holds Wednesday low and clear back over 177 that would be great.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Weakest right now but closed above the 100.69 support, then 99.00. Over 102.25 better and under 100 will drag everything else with it
XLF (Financials) New 60 day low and better close-wouldn’t get long here but if clears 23.75 that’s a boost
SMH (Semiconductors) Held 52 and now over 53.75 a place to go for strength
IBB (Biotechnology) Its almost uncanny how well this held 310 and then ran up from there
XRT (Retail) Possible double top at 97.15. But also holding the 50 DMA well
IYR (Real Estate) Bullish engulfing pattern near the highs
GLD (Gold Trust) We exited most of our long that began last week as a daytrade. Now, unless it clears 120, under 117.50 should work itself lower
USO (US Oil Fund) After double, then triple the average volume, closed great-could be the reversal (also a double the average daily range) in the nick of time to now be perceived well for the market-like to see it clear 18.75
XLE (Energy) After making a new low, also could be setting up for a reversal-OIH and XOP as well
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Double the volume, new high close on the intraday low-yet another making of a potential blow off
UUP (Dollar Bull) No real concerns unless it breaks 24
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) 42.00 down to 41.62 is the area to hold
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