September 10, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Impressive day as the market found relief from good numbers out of China and a seemingly more willing to cooperate, Assad. But, aside from the news and fundamental factors, looking strictly at the technical situation, I wrote last week that small caps had to come into play-the Russell 2000 did indeed manage an unconfirmed phase change to bullish (as did the S&P 500), while NASDAQ, which had been leading the charge, continued onto new 2013 highs. The holdout remaining in a warning phase is the Dow Industrials. In fact, as the other indices shine, they do so at the cost of getting a bit extended on the relative strength indicators. That could mean that by the time the Dow reaches the 50 DMA (or cannot reach the 50 DMA) time to take profits on longs. Another anticipated outcome is the rotation to sectors that rely more on the easing of interest rates. Real Estate, Homebuilders, Transportation, and Financials caught some wind Monday. Semiconductors as well. This means that besides watching the lagging blue chips, watch these groups carefully as well, since the real test of sustenance is keeping all of these eagerly in rally mode.
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed Bullish phase which has to confirm from here. Also, has a gap to fill to 168.38
Russell 2000 (IWM) What I wrote over the weekend, “Higher open, going to take a more bullish bias all around.” Check and check. Now, the 50 DMA is important here as well
Dow (DIA) 152.25 is the 50 DMA to clear-still a bit away
Nasdaq (QQQ) Opened higher and really, never looked back. Good leadership!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Once crossed 19.93, strong close though not yet over the 50 DMA at 20.16
SMH (Semiconductors) 39.16 some daily chart resistance. Now, the 50 DMA totally the place to hold.
XRT (Retail) Crossed 80.00 which helps the case, although still in a weak warning phase
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed bullish phase-needs to stay here
IBB (Biotechnology) Back to its ole self-on new highs.
IYR (Real Estate) Will look at 62.70 as key support to hold for this rally to sustain with 65.50 the 50 DMA resistance
XHB (Homebuilders) Impressive move today! This cleared the 50 DMA and is now in an unconfirmed bull phase. Look for 29.88 to hold.
GLDInside day. Watch which way the range breaks.
USO (US Oil Fund)After Friday’s gap up to new highs, today was a digestion day. Still holding the upward sloping 10 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services)New multiyear high!
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed the Distribution Phase.
FXI (China) Gapped higher and is looking strong.
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