April 24, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
After hammer candles and possible reversal patterns, all followed through to upside leaving big questions on whether or not the market will head back to bullish phases (all still in warning) or having failed the 50 DMA, begin to test much lower prices. And it is this transitional phase that has dominated last 3 weeks while earnings season is in full gear. New divergence last 2 days with gains in real estate, transportation and financials and losses in semiconductors and retail. Tough time to hold positions although with AAPL earnings beat, perhaps the market will get some relief.
S&P 500 (SPY) Through 138 a much better picture. Otherwise, respect the warning phase.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Holding weekly and monthly longer term moving averages. The daily chart indicates either a move over 80.15 is necessary soon or lower prices in store
Dow (DIA) Small gap higher. Now must hold the gap low or will be seen more like failure at the 50 DMA
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) An open above Tuesday's high a good sign. A move back above the 50 DMA even better
ETFs
GLD Tried and failed 160, which is keeping this looking vulnerable
XLF (Financials) Good close on the intraday highs and back over the 50 DMA which is where it needs to stay.
IBB (Biotechnology) Still in a bull phase with a DOJI day
SMH (Semiconductors) Gap and close lower. Now oversold but has some work to do to indicate any bottoming type action
XRT (Retail) Never tested or cleared Monday's high and sold off holding an exponential moving average yet not oversold.
IYT (Transportation) After hammer candle, gap higher and close over 50 DMA. All good signs
IYR (Real Estate) Been writing about the strength in this group since last week and now back at looking at 63.00 recent highs to clear
OIH (Oil Services) A weekly close over 40.00 would improve the technical pattern. But if does not make it, still a great place to go for weakness
XLE (Energy) After the reversal from the lows, back over the 200 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) After the reversal from the lows, back over the fast moving average.
Note: I will be taking a break therefore no Daily until May 7th. Trade well!
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
