August 21, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Today was a very volatile day, due to the release of the FED meeting minutes and the uncertainty regarding the indexes. The four major indexes are currently in very vulnerable positions. Tomorrow, I will closely watch the Russell 2000 (IWM) to see if it can hold the 50 DMA. IWM confirmed a bullish phase today, and looks the best out of the four major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPY) is in a particularly precarious position, as it closed under recent lows and is far from solid support. Nasdaq (QQQ) is consolidating and should hold the recent lows if it is going to resume its accent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) continues to drag downward but may find support at the July low and is now oversold. The FED minutes offered no big surprises as regards to policy change but, it was enough to shake up the market and sent TBT to new yearly highs.
S&P 500 (SPY) Broke down out of the range from the inside day and closed under recent lows. Watch for 163.58 to hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Confirmed the bullish phase and closed above the 50 DMA and the low of the gap from 8/21.
Dow (DIA) Continuing to drag downward. Watch for 148.25 to hold.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Broke down out of its inside day but, held recent lows. Watch for 75.30 to hold.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Watch for recent lows to hold.
SMH (Semiconductors) Broke under the range of the inside day and closed under recent consolidation. Very vulnerable.
XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed warning phase. Watch for 78.90 to hold.
IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Closed under the 50 DMA. Now in an unconfirmed warning phase.
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the upward sloping 50 DMA and rising. Watch to see if the 10 DMA is cleared.
IYR (Real Estate) Positive pivots. Watch for today’s low to hold.
XHB (Homebuilders) Closed above the 200 and confirmed the warning phase. Watch for the upward sloping 200 to hold.
GLDDigesting the higher levels from the move up on 8/15. Watch for 131.39 to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund)Look for 36.88 to hold. If this level breaks, expect a dip to the 50 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services)Closed under the 50 DMA, bringing this into an unconfirmed warning phase.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Closed under the 50 DMA, bringing this into an unconfirmed warning phase.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Made new yearly highs today.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Gapped up and held the 10 DMA.
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