February 9, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Do you believe the economy is heading towards inflation?
Well, the price will argue with that opinion.
Looking at my own trifecta of inflation barometers
They all say no inflation, at least right now.
Do you believe the economy is heading towards recession?
Well, the price will argue with that opinion.
Well, the price will argue with that opinion.
Do you believe that gold prices are sending a warning?
Well, price supports that opinion only, pick you warning
Do you believe we are heading towards substantial economic growth?
Well, here is where my Economic Modern Family tells the story..
Looking at the Economic Modern Family at large, the best one can say with current prices is that the economic picture or growth going forward remains unknown.
Gold loves uncertainty, so the only thing certain right now is uncertainty.
Considering that all the members except for Biotechnology IBB, are holding their 50-week moving averages, we can at least surmise optimism has not left the building.
Sister Semiconductors SMH sits on the 50-WMA. While money rotates out of chips, for US centric economic growth, we need her in the game, but not necessarily as a leader.
Transportation IYT held the 50-WMA and rallied mainly on strong UBER earnings. Nonetheless, transportation holding price is good.
The consumer or Granny XRT is most likely the biggest key to growth signals on price as the consumer is 70% of the GDP.
That blue line of 50-WMA is close but still holding. Want to sound like an economist? If that line breaks, start talking the R word.
As far as Granddad Russell 2000 and Regional Banks KRE, they are holding hence, the indecision as to the next move.
And Biotech IBB, began last week with so much promise. Now, IBB is back to the 200-WMA (green) and in need of some of its own medicine.
Price will dictate the narrative. The time is now for traders who understand this.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
Traders World Fintech Awards
-
-----Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
"I grew my money tree and so can you!"- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks
Yahoo Finance Tech is no longer leading; how to find what is 02-06-25
PreMarket Prep Trading tactics for thematic trading 02-07-25
Business First AM Mish talks Superbowl Picks 02-07-25
Schwab Network TV Mish and Nicole discuss where your eyes should be looking right now 02-04-25
Podcast Mish and Geoff Another week of trading the gap. We show you how 02-03-25
Chuck Jaffee Money Life Mish talks about the trader’s paradise 02-03-25
Business Week AM Mish covers why the TLT or long bonds is the best signal for risk on or off 02-03-25
Coming Up:
February 10 Podcast
February 11 CNA TV Singapore
February 12 Dale Pinkert
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 600 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Back to 225 support for now
Dow (DIA) 439 support 452 now the resistance to clear
Nasdaq (QQQ) 520 the 50-DMA support
Regional banks (KRE) 64 now the support to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) Back over the 50-Week MA that now needs to hold
Transportation (IYT) 70 has to hold as this could not clear back over the Jan calendar range high
Biotechnology (IBB) Back to critical levels around 137
Retail (XRT) 77 area critical support
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Flashing risk on
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
