March 28, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
NASDAQ 100 is becoming the "Boy Who Cried Wolf," with today's new multi-year high, close on the intraday low pattern we see once a week these days. Ok, so some sheep are nervous and rightfully so. Most of this rally has been made with investors waiting for the other shoe to drop. The volume has been super light and the proverbial "climb the wall of worry" prevails. Do not forget that QQQ began 2012 at 57.00 with today's closing price 68.21. That's an awesome move. Of course now that the weekly Relative Strength is near 100%, new longs should be cautious. But, as I have to remember myself when asking if this is the top; can any one of us pick the high tick? Doubtful. But the market will tell us when it's time.
NASDAQ (QQQ) With all possible reversals, a couple of days confirmation is necessary.
S&P 500 (SPY) Last week, when QQQ made a similar looking candle pattern it made today, this index did not. Today, though, it has-new high and close on the intraday low. To be respected but too soon to completely fear.
The Dow (DIA) Not close to testing 132.61, the high from March 16th. Could mean has more catching up to do. Could also mean like last week, a sign of Turnaround Tuesday. Under 131.34 might be time to get out of the pool, especially on a closing basis.
Russell 2000 (IWM) This too made new highs and closed on the intraday low. But, holding the low of the gap higher with room to 83.10.
ETFs:
GLD Island bottom still intact but could not confirm a phase change back to accumulation. That means it remains in a weak distribution phase til further notice
XLF (Financials) Like the 3 indexes, new multi-year high ending on the intraday low, yet holding accelerated fast moving average.
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs, close on intraday low. But, volume also real light. A correction would not be the worst thing in the world for the whole market. Did one a few weeks ago and then the fun returned. Now, not too much fun watching and waiting.
SMH (Semiconductors) 36.12, last swing high in 2008 was tested intraday with a close on the intraday lows. I highly doubt the move is over, but we have little exposure after today long or short.
XRT (Retail) Just to write something different, last several times this made new highs and closed on intraday lows, the pattern was a 2-5 day correction in store.
IYT (Transportation) A push through the fast moving average looks good with 100 not out of the question.
IYR (Real Estate) Filled a gap and ended with a DOJI. Still has to clear and close above 62.00 to look good up here.
XLE (Energy) OIH (Oil Services) Gave you the head's up on these as the best ETFs to go to if the market weakened.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The correction I have been waiting for.
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