May 17, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Last two days were profit taking opportunities for many longs that were deep in the money. That doesn’t mean one should not be holding onto core positions as today’s “red” day was more of a welcomed respite than a “top”. With Friday around the corner, several technical factors could be more telling about what the market could look forward to. First, after a round of troubling economic indicators (CPI, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims), how much more does the market correct (or not correct) at the end of the week? Can the recent rally take a hit on the chin and move on after this round of economic indicators (typically a lagging sign rather than a leading one)? Secondly, does the US Dollar end over the 200 weekly moving average? Do rates continue to drop or will today’s action be an anomaly? Finally, how much/little volume and volatility accompany any further selling? Low volatility and volume would be a positive sign.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day which could make the end of the week even more interesting if the range of last 2 days breaks up or down from here
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day here too. After the 98.00 target, this too will be a good pivotal number to watch as the week ends.
Dow (DIA) Another inside day here too. 153 was the original target.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) After the inside day, this made a new highs and closed on the intraday lows. Sometimes an ominous sign, but like all signs, needs confirmation. 74.00 was a target here-something to consider
ETFs:
GLD 130.00 recent lows to defend and would not be surprised to see some short covering to end the week
XLF (Financials) 19.35 now support to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Been writing about that weekly Bollinger Band-when it gets penetrated only to see the week end beneath it-watching for that.
SMH (Semiconductors) If you have been buying the dips since 2013 began, you’re in luck-could be another one coming your way.
XRT (Retail) Nasty bearish engulfing pattern-new highs, close on intraday lows and taking out prior day’s low as well. Most disturbing sign I see
IYT (Transportation) Reached, breached then closed beneath the 116 target
IYR (Real Estate) Not so bad here-and this group has helped keep perspective on the overall market
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed return to accumulation phase
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high looking somewhat elusive for this week anyway
XLE (Energy) Inside day here
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Converging moving averages near today’s lows. 63.20 is a good area to see if this can defend or not
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Thought we’d see this reverse the lower highs on the daily chart from the peak price of 2013. Hasn’t happened yet.
XHB (Homebuilders) Made new highs and closed on the intraday lows.
UUP (Dollar Bull) A weekly close over 22.57 will confirm the reversal trend of a weaker US dollar
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to warning again
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