April 30, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Actual Headline
Record High Close in the DJIA!
Federal Reserve Increases the Taper
US Economy Stalls With a Flat GDP!
Private Sector Gains 220,000 Jobs!
Like those headlines? So does the market apparently as NASDAQ also closes above the range (still in warning though) while the small caps continue to slog through.
Perhaps the biggest surprise post Fed announcement was the drop in rates-not huge nor enough to reverse the possible peak low from earlier this week. So, keep watching TLT/TBTs as the theory I see possibly beginning to play out is one where rates firming (albeit not too quickly) equals a more sustained economic recovery. In other words, the market can finally wean from its dependency on the QE nozzle.
S&P 500 (SPY) Took out 188 with an accumulation day. So many traders are nervous as well they should be. Technical bubble, with accumulation day in volume, not too bad here
Russell 2000 (IWM) May be lagging but had 3 chances last 3 weeks to break the 200 DMA and didn’t. Wouldn’t want to be long if it tackles that level again, but for now, seems it wants more bounce.
Dow (DIA) DJIA new highs, but this still has more to go to see the high 166.06
Nasdaq (QQQ) Moving in increments where the round number plus .35 is significant. Held 86.35, then cleared 87.35. Now it needs to hold 87.35 and clear 88.35, where the 50 DMA lives.
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish-like to see it stick this time
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish
IYT (Transportation) If this can clear 137.80 no arguing
IBB (Biotechnology) Took out Tuesday high by one tick-don’t see this going to new highs, but do like the hold of the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) Confirmed the improved phase change. 83.85 next hurdle if holds the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Looks good to 70.50 level
GLD Held the month moving average support but still see possible down move-no position
USO (US Oil Fund) Drop to the 200 DMA
KRE (Regional Banks) Possible reversal candle back over the 200 DMA
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