July 30, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Although there is lots of super important data about to come out this week-the second-quarter GDP, results of the Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting, jobless claims in the private sector, more earnings reports, etc., I once again retreat to the technical bubble. Market is mixed, choppy and lying in wait for some definitive direction. The small caps (Russell 2000s) remain a concern, ending under the fast moving average, with an inside day. S&P 500 can really go either way; the Dow as well. NASDAQ had a new high close although did not close on new 2013 intraday highs. Say that 10 times fast! Most sectors were not as strong other than biotechnology (no surprise) and semiconductors (pleasant surprise). Oil dropped sharply while the financials, real estate and transportation sectors did nothing to ameliorate the topping candles from last week. What does the technical bubble look like? Not a place to be heavily long or short right now.
Russell 2000 (IWM) inside day. Once again, an important range break to follow
Dow (DIA)155.74 ultimate price to clear
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)20.35 is the old 2013 high from the May 22nd top and now the support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase.
XRT (Retail) Made new highs but did not close on them. Worth watching for sure
IYT (Transportation) Inside day above the 50 DMA which is declining in slope
IBB (Biotechnology) A monster!
IYR (Real Estate)Confirmed the distribution phase-definitely looking to the Fed now
XHB (Homebuilders) Unless this gets back above 30.00, looks like it too can visit the 200 DMA
GLDBack to unconfirmed bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund)Textbook example of what topping candles can do
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Showing signs of higher rates in the cards.
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