July 31, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
In New Mexico, if you tell the waiter you would like Christmas with your breakfast burrito, it means you want both red and green chile. If today didn’t wreak so much havoc, with the red and green radar screen we are showing, I would say it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, only that would be associated with a joyous time. Today was far from joyous. The Fed announced they would keep quantitative easing in place; hence, rates and the US dollar dropped cooperatively. But, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000s failed to cross recent highs and although closed unchanged to slightly green, dropped to the intraday lows. The Dow made a new high and closed on the intraday lows in the red. NASDAQ made a new high and closed very close to its intraday lows. This is the 3rd time since May 22nd, news highs are met with major selling. May be a sign of topping action, may be a sign that rallies are nothing more than bears running for cover every time the market does run, may be a sign we are in for a month or so of an aggravating trading range and that’s all. I’m no perma bear. However, today I found myself bailing out of many longs in our portfolio leaving us mainly in cash. Let’s just say shaken, not stirred!
S&P 500 (SPY) 169.83, 169.86, 169.85-the last 3 highs including today’s. Triple tops perhaps. But, now, unless those number substantially clear, staying clear of too many long positions. Maybe this is just the top of the trading range and not much more. Time will tell.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 104.98 the number here to clear for this to bring back confidence.
Dow (DIA)This cleared 155.74 to make new highs only to close below it. Could mean reversal, could mean digestion. Interesting is the low RSI in this index so close to all-time highs.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) DOJI (when the opening and closing price of the day are basically the same) right above the old 2013 highs. Been a leader lately, watch this carefully.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)This at least has to clear 20.67 to look ok, then recent highs to look even better and of course, hold 20.35
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed bullish phase but has a lot of overhead resistance. The 50 DMA is key
XRT (Retail) The good news-broke above the channel. The bad news: Could be yet another reversal candle from new highs
IYT (Transportation) Like to see this clear 116 now and hold the declining 50 DMA below
IBB (Biotechnology) When I want to feel good about the market, I look here
IYR (Real Estate)Why if the rates are going to fall, does this look so awful? Why, if the economy is improving moderately does this look so awful?
XHB (Homebuilders) Cleared 30.00 but not the 50 DMA so no improvement in phase to report
GLDConfirmed bear phase but a really interesting range expansion around the moving averages
USO (US Oil Fund)Could be short covering-certainly a nice pop after a 8 day correction
XLE (Energy) 84.00 is key
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Nasty looking reversal candle if confirms.
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