April 8, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Last week ended lower than the week prior. But stepping back, the market is still really close to the multi-year highs. That suggests that not only is the current bull phase alive and well, but also that fundamental and technical concerns could not keep a good market down. The retail (XRT) and financial sectors (XLF) kept us feeling confident in the market as the year began. Neither closed all that great last week. Furthermore, the divergence remains very much alive with certain stocks ugly and others stratospheric. Bottom line: a stock pickers market both long and short and treacherous for those who are not students of risk/reward.
S&P 500 (SPY) If the week begins over 140.25, would keep a friendly bias. Beneath 140, more cautious with 138.65 last swing low support to hold
Dow (DIA) 129.71 last swing low with 129.55 the 50 DMA. Also could see early strength over 130.75.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Second close under the fast moving average. If clears Thursday and Friday highs, good sign. Otherwise, 68.50 level looks double toppish.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Doji and unconfirmed weak warning phase. 81.00 was a level we wrote a lot about several weeks ago. Still a support area to hold.
ETFS:
GLD Unless it crosses and closes above 163, see more downside in the works
XLF (Financials) Barely held 15.50 ending the week with a hammer candle. Since it has worked off all overbought conditions, looking for the buy opportunity.
IBB (Biotechnology) Closed well even if it was not at the weekly high
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. That's pretty sideways action. Not my first choice of sector to buy until it convincingly holds the 50 DMA with more time on its side.
XRT (Retail) With all the great news about retail, very disappointing close. If this corrects to the 50 DMA, probably a great reentry point.
IYT (Transportation) Hanging tough with an inside day to end the week.
IYR (Real Estate) 2012 monthly clearance of the moving average intact. Shorter-term, watching the 50 DMA. Over 62.00, would not hesitate to buy
OIH (Oil Services) Approaching oversold with a hammer candle and 39.66 last swing low to hold.
XLE (Energy) 70.12 the 200 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed down from the week before. TLT bounced from 110 and its 200 DMA. What keeps traders alive is flexibility which means as much as we think rates have bottomed, have to respect the charts.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: