September 5, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
When one looks at the scan of unconfirmed phase changes among 400 or so instruments, one is struck by how evenly divided between negative and positive phases the list appears after the trading session. Although divergence has been a constant theme throughout 2012, the division seems more marked especially after the "end of summer, first day back at school" mentality. Semiconductors, financials down, real estate, biotechnology and retail up-all, however, still very much in consolidation after the last several weeks. Indexes are all still very much in bullish phases.
S&P 500 (SPY) After Friday's large accumulation in volume, Tuesday's session began the week with dead on average volume. Remains under the fast moving average with a doji day. 140 area key support and 141.56 good area to clear to resume move up.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Here is a classic example of divergence. Came close to testing the August high but not quite. 82.70 is that number. Held the fast moving average on great volume. 81.15 area now support.
Dow (DIA) Got close to the 50 DMA and bounced but not quite enough to push it through the fast moving average keeping this a weak link.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) second session of a range expansion . Held Friday's low and closed with a DOJI day-just shy of the fast moving average.
ETFs:
GLD 162.45 closest support as this nears overbought
XLF (Financials) 15.20 number to clear and 15.08 to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) 138.75 last swing high cleared today. Approaching but not quite overbought
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 50 DMA nearly to the tick. Over 32.95 should bring back buyers. Under the 50 DMA some key weekly moving averages next support.
XRT (Retail) Over 62.00 will break a trendline and should be good for this sector. 61.10 now key support
IYT (Transportation) Huge divergence-as the market went up first ½ of 2012 so did this. Now, it is under the 200 DMA significantly and breaking bad with the rest of the market. This concerns me.
IYR (Real Estate) This group, on the other hand, is also where it's at. 66.21 last swing high to clear. 65.25 to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and consolidating under the 200 DMA. Also a reason that transports are floundering
OIH (Oil Services) Touched the 200 DMA which means, eyes hereif continues to hold
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 15.36 now resistance or point to clear for some follow through.
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