June 5, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The market broke the 20 Turnaround Tuesdays in a row streak just in time to get the cliché “June Swoon” primed and ready! Low volume selloff in the indexes with the S&P 500 back under 164 yet holding Monday’s low. As I have written in the past, the market hates uncertainty. Until we get some clarity from the FED on the bond buying program (Quantitative Easing) specifically if they plan to continue it or not and if not, until when, we’re looking out our window at not one but two major fires burning in New Mexico and thinking-oh yeah- the symbolism!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held 162.66 with hump day around the corner that is now the official weekly low to hold or fail. If holds, 165 next resistance to cross Subscribers: Slightly Negative Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 96.50 the low to hold here with really, 100 the point to clear Subscribers: Negative Pivots
Dow (DIA) Never crossed the fast moving average and a good time to mention that this morning, the market internals turned negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Barely holding 73.00 which again means a gap below should set the tone for lower levels unless it runs back above 75.00 Subscribers: Positive Pivots
ETFs:
GLD 137 resistance and 134 support with a nearly impossible read on the technicals other than the bear phase
XLF (Financials) Held the boxed in range and the 80 monthly moving average for now
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 50 DMA and had an inside day
SMH (Semiconductors) Good performance except for the new highs and close on the intraday lows thereby, getting us prepped for a possible reversal
XRT (Retail) 77.00 held for now but now has to clear 78.00 on a closing basis to return confidence
IYT (Transportation) Holding the 50 DMA. Now, like to see it return over 113.
IYR (Real Estate) Really close to the 200 DMA now
USO (US Oil Fund) Whiplash
OIH (Oil Services) Holding onto the 50 DMA for dear life and like again over
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day and super important to watch for overall sentiment on rates
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 key support
XHB (Homebuilders) Broke the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed warning phase. Subscribers: The Phases and Forecasts mentioned this sector for a short-therefore, if market continues to have issues, can look here
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to warning with an inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MET Max risk 43.37 the 10 DMA and over 44.25 then today’s high, could make new highs especially since it’s also over the 80 monthly moving average
TTM Inside day. 27.10 good risk. Like to see it clear today’s high and R1.
AMZN Inside day. On the 50 DMA 262.95 max risk. Like over R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NTAP Got out on Friday, but now, over R1 would get back in if holds 37.00
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SKS Has to clear the 10 DMA and today’s high to get going and hold Monday low 14.64
GE 2 Inside days. Last month crossed the 80 monthly moving average-1st time since 2008. If can clear 23.79 like for swing trade risk to under the 50 DMA
BEAM Held the 50 DMA, outperformed and has to clear R1 65.89 now and hold today’s low most conservatively
ROST Tested and held the 50 DMA but still has to clear R1 and today’s high
PRU Good candidate if the market can firm. Just cleared the 80 monthly moving average last month. Risk 68.30 and like to see R1 70.20 clear
KSS Today’s low new risk as we wait patiently to see if this has muscle
BXP Confirmed the slingshot low provided 106.18 holds. Also confirmed the bull phase
PX Over 116.90, new multi-year highs with 115.70 the place to hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
PM Has one more day to try to confirm a slingshot low-has to clear 92.82
DECK Now, has to clear 55.15 the 50 DMA and R1 and hold 54.11 the 10 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DE Unconfirmed warning phase and still a watch for a short if market stays weak. 86.00 is the 200 DMA to break
PANL Inside day. Shouldn’t clear 29.45
FCX 31.30 good risk point as the whole chart looking heavy with support 30.14
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