May 20, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Monday began with a low volume marginal correction in the indexes and a clear rotation into energy and oil plus a short covering rally in gold. The dollar lost some of its recent strength which certainly helped fuel this rotation into some commodity based instruments. Although the financial sector remains firm, homebuilders, real estate and my darling semiconductors took a rest. Solar stocks also ran up. And in spite of NASDAQ taking a bit of vacation, AAPL came back to life, now looking like it found support with the possibility of further upside if the $450.00 level can clear. All in all, in the overall market, today’s action did not appear to be a game changer; however, a correction is never out of the question after a historical and relentless run.
S&P 500 (SPY) Today’s low is a good point to watch. If breaks, a better confirmation that a correction could be upon us
Russell 2000 (IWM) Today’s low is a good point to watch. If breaks, a better confirmation that a correction could be upon us.
Dow (DIA) 153 is the weekly Bollinger Band-and with today’s close right on that number, certainly one to watch on Tuesday for a hold or failure of 153.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Today’s low, like in the other sectors, is a good point to watch. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes. S1 and today’s low line up.
ETFs:
GLD Defended and held 130.50 the recent low and ran up with a vengeance.
XLF (Financials) At 20.00 our swing position long from April was a good place to lighten up. Keeping a core long though, as unless this breaks the 50 DMA, a correction will look more like noise.
IBB (Biotechnology) After ending last week with a meek inside day holding the fast moving average and not clearing the weekly Bollinger Band, today it sold off breaking under the 10 DMA. 175 next area of support.
SMH (Semiconductors) 38.00 is a retracement to the channel breakout on the monthly chart.
XRT (Retail) Still has to clear 78.47 the high from last Thursday’s ugly looking candle
IYT (Transportation) Under 116 expect some more correction here.
IYR (Real Estate) Got to the tippy top of the weekly Bollinger Band. Like all the other leading sectors, a rest would not be the worst thing in the world if you missed this last boat.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 point to clear with today’s low a good place for support
OIH (Oil Services) Took out the 2012 and recent 2013 high. Should continue up from here if today wasn’t a one day anomaly.
XLE (Energy) Started the parabolic journey last week.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The rise in rates is starting to look a bit more permanent with this over all the daily moving averages and holding.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Broke a trendline on the weekly chart going back from2008 high-great reversal!
XHB (Homebuilders) Needs to clear 32.55.
UUP (Dollar Bull) A possible island top if confirms would definitely help the case of a correction in the dollar generated instruments
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