June 26, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
"She's The Kinda Trouble I Like To Be In" Bryan Adams
In spite of the fact that all the indexes remain in warning phases, even the small caps (Russell 2000), at least got closer to the 50 DMA after the poorer than expected GDP. Since so much of the market is perception and psychology, with the GDP numbers, the market reacted to what the FED has already said-no easing if the economy doesn’t continue to improve. So, the economy shows slower than expected growth and everyone gets happy. Did I use the word “perverse” this week? Anyway, not sure about this perception since the dollar rose again and rates improved but certainly not to euphoric proportions. Gold certainly is the new scourge of the markets. Social media the new darlings-especially Pandora and Yelp. Retail and Financial sectors went back to unconfirmed bullish phases-a positive. But the market, even after today, is far from the peak high in May. It needs a whole lot more bad news to be good.
S&P 500 (SPY)Under today’s low, would look like 3 days up to resistance, then breakdown again. Otherwise, the 50 DMA is still there for the taking
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tried so very hard, but failed to close above the 50 DMA. Tuesday I wrote it better happen sooner rather than later. Like tomorrow or else
Dow (DIA) A move over 150 or so would be encouraging
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)Would consider 70.00 pivotal here-like it above, not so much below.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Unconfirmed bullish phase and looking out, for the month, a close over 19.20 is key
SMH (Semiconductors) 37.60 is important on a lot of levels-it keeps the recent channel breakout on the monthly charts intact and it crossed the 50 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed bullish phase making today’s low real important
IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And of course, the 50 DMA is the area to clear
IYR (Real Estate)Here is where I would look for a short if the market comes off-been weak, still weak.
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