January 25, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I have been consistently friendly to the market since the year began. I write everyday about how the phases are positive, the volume is light with the occasional accumulation days thrown in, major sectors have been leading and other former laggers have done surprisingly well. I give you a head's up when near-term Relative Strength Indicators get overbought and share with you a sigh of relief when digestion works those overbought conditions off. We have seen everything we have been writing about come to fruition, especially in NASDAQ.
So then-was this the blow off rally or are we just now starting to go parabolic? Blow off rallies happen on new highs with big surges in volume. In NASDAQ (QQQ) this was the biggest volume we have had since December 21st. Not quite double the daily average, but indeed double the volume over the last several trading days.
S &P 500 (SPY) There is a gap from July 27th up to 133.06 that has not been filled. Today's high 132.87 came close. Relative to the aforementioned concerns and a blow off would feel a lot better if we fill that gap and hold.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Still lagging behind although it took out last week's high. Let's put it this way, under 77.25 a major head's up. Otherwise, has 81.00 as resistance. And now overbought.
NASDQ (QQQ) Top of a 10-year channel and new highs. First one to watch to see if can get to 64.00 and/or if breaks 59.83 old high and starts to topple.
ETFs:
GLD Well, well-nothing like a recirculation of old news from the FED (rates remain the same until 2014) for a startling turnaround day on huge volume. So much for the gap and me looking to short.
XRT (Retail) Make that 5 ATRs (5 times the average true range) and counting since the price broke out above the channel.
XLF (Financials) This sector better bust loose soon or will definitely spoil the fun.
IYT (Transportation) Has room to 97.00
XLE (Energy) 73.17 October 28th high. Might see that on the open and if so, 76.00 next target.
TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) It was done but then had this surprising rally the end of the day. Certainly keeps the possible bottoming formation in place.
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