March 26, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I took a 2 day break to see family. Stepping back gives traders a chance to reflect on the market. I left Friday seeing both the good and the bad in the market and clearly, that has not changed much. The small caps (IWM) have switched to becoming the laggard, TBTs (the short bonds) remain out of favor and the financial ETF (XLF) has yet to clear the fast moving average. However, the S&P 500 finally filled the gap from the island top, making it no longer an island. And the Dow, as predicted, with its incredibly close proximity to the all-time high, crept even closer to it with today's action. What keeps traders on the plus side in their P and L is if they can detect then capitalize on the emerging shifts in direction, much like playing the carnival game, the one where must be poised to shoot the plastic duck that pops up next!
S&P 500 (SPY) 156.22 filled the gap from March 14th island top, with today's high 156.23. What that means is that the spike high from that day is less likely to be a top (would have been more likely if it been accompanied by huge volume.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Choppy in that index right now. Makes sense given its recent position in the back rather than the foreground.
Dow (DIA) 145.35 is the recent high with high RSIs on the weekly chart
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 (the 50 DMA) is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above with a very interesting inside day alignment.
ETFs:
GLD Trading under the fast moving average back in a bearish looking trend.
XLF (Financials) Inside day right under the fast moving average.
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall high in place with an inside day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Today's action was positive but now, 35.50 is really the place to clear
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is potential double top which is yet another reason I am seeing some real good and some real bad signs.
IYT (Transportation) another inside day under the fast moving average and really, possibly acting a bit toppy.
IYR (Real Estate) A bright spot. 69.35 big point to clear now
USO (US Oil Fund) That bottoming action from early March sure played out with now an unconfirmed phase change to bullish
OIH (Oil Services) Either has to clear the 50 DMA or still has a shot for a possible bear flag forming
XLE (Energy) 79.50 big point to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) One of the main reasons for concern as this is below the 50 DMA until it clears 67.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like to see this close out the week over 61.00 for a new move up
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day. Not sure what to make of this group here
UUP (Dollar Bull) Pushing and won't be surprised to see this through that 200 weekly moving average
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