Trading Strategy: Shorting GLD and Commodities

September 28, 2011

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


As anticipated GLD and many commodity related instruments got hit today. All of the conflicting signs: the weaker stocks that rallied, phase still bearish, lack of participation by market leaders, poor overall volume, low consumer confidence and short term hike on rates came home to roost.

SPY Looking at the 200 weekly moving average at 114.58. The low after the FED meeting and yesterday high makes today roughly a 50% retracement. Expect some chop and another day of low volume.

DIA 108.00 next support with move over 112 some relief.

QQQ Could not confirm the phase change to Recovery. Broke the 50 DMA and the channel it struggled to get beyond. Now 52.00 underlying support and 55.50 the point to clear.

IWM 65.20 the 200 weekly moving average support which matters most with closing price.  Over today's high could be interesting though.

ETFs:

GLD I hope I handed you this short trade on a gold platter! 155.16 the 160 EMA which held again. Under see the eventual test of the 200 DMA at 148.60 area. Has to clear 165 to show any signs of a base.

TLT ChartTLT**Yes we are still working a double top with 2008 highs and the one last week, but strength today suggests may not be over just yet.

SMH Broke 30.00, so unless it gets back above, next support at the 200 weekly moving average 27.26.

IYR 50.55 the 200 weekly moving average.

IYT Went for the under the 200 weekly moving average trouble . One of the few that broke the August lows already last week (OIH as well)-surest to watch for next direction.

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