Should Market Bulls Stay Positive?

May 8, 2019

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankThis guy is my hero.

Standing on the corner, holding up this sign, he got my attention.

He readily engaged in conversation. He did not ask for money, so I asked him if he needed any.

He said, “it couldn’t hurt.”

The bulls are in a similar scenario.

They are standing on a corner, trying to stay positive, while discreetly holding out their hand hoping for money.

Was today’s rally too shallow for any real positive change?

Semiconductors could not hold early gains and closed well under last week’s low of 113.49. Plus SMH had an inside day.

Transportation also had an inside day. Good news, it held 190. Not so good news, the rally was really shallow, with IYT ending the day down .28%

Retail, XRT, our biggest concern, held the 200-week MA. It could not clear back over the 50-DMA thereby, confirming the bearish phase.

Regional Banks KRE closed red. Under 54.20, it will be hard to “stay positive.”

Biotechnology IBB closed basically flat. That does not exactly invoke bullish confidence.

Finally, the Russell 2000, IWM, also with an inside day, acted poorly. That’s a more immediate concern. With the recent leadership, the Russell’s now make us wonder if that’s sustainable.

Inside days are perfect pause todays. Statistically, the way the range breaks dictates the next direction.

Therefore, bulls can continue to hang out on a street corner with their positive message. However, they better look both ways before they cross the street in hopes of finding money.

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S&P 500 (SPY) 290 quickly went from support to resistance. The 50-DMA is at 285.20

Russell 2000 (IWM) 157.15 the 50-WMA is the pivotal resistance. With 155.55 next level to hold

Dow (DIA) 260 is now pivotal as this broke the 50-DMA and has confirmed the caution phase

Nasdaq (QQQ) 188.67 now resistance. The 50-DMA support is at 182.00

KRE (Regional Banks) 55.90 the 200 DMA resistance now with 54.20 the next area of support

SMH (Semiconductors) 110 the 50-DMA

IYT (Transportation) Holding the support at 190

IBB (Biotechnology) 105.75 pivotal area with 103.50 support

XRT (Retail) Confirmed bearish phase

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