September 23, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The great small caps hope-or shall I say, where my focus began during today’s session, and where my focus remains at the end of today’s session. IWM or Russell 2000 has the clearest technical pattern right now. For one, it closed green while the other indices did not. Secondly, it closed with a doji candle-when the opening and closing prices are the same or real close together. Third, it held the fast moving average. Fourth, it had an accumulation day in volume on a down day in the Dow. Fifth, this correction has helped it to work off any overbought conditions. Sixth, it is holding the prior 2013 highs made in the beginning of August. 6 reasons to let this one tell the tale going into Tuesday.
S&P 500 (SPY) Has to clear Monday’s high to bring back buyers. Also, has to hold the 50 DMA support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Much better looking which brings me back to hope-watch this for a failure of 105.75-105.50 or a move back over 107.00
Dow (DIA) Wrote over the weekend that this has the closest trip if continues south, to the 50 DMA. Good news is the slope on the 50 DMA is still pointing up!
Nasdaq (QQQ) AAPL sure prevented this index from falling apart closing basically unchanged. One could say that that is a significant underperformance to AAPL and thereby deduce that if AAPL falls from here, QQQ could as well only harder.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed return to warning phase with 20.11 recent support (September 13th low) to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) 39.78 good underlying support to hold and still looking ok longer term
XRT (Retail) After failing to take out the old 2013 high, look at 81.55 then 81.00 as key levels of support or a move over today’s high a good sign
IYT (Transportation) Like to see today’s low hold
IYR (Real Estate) Besides IWM, I am looking here to gauge how much confidence there is in the market to hold up from these levels. Monday’s low super important.
XHB (Homebuilders) 29.80 its support area
GLD Subscribers: Although we took a teeny loss, I like the hammer candle and will continue to watch it from here
USO (US Oil Fund)confirmed warning phase
OIH (Oil Services)47.00 next area of support
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Closed unchanged. Long term still friendly here
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs got an unconfirmed phase change to recovery
EWG (Germany) Good correction to start watching for an entry point
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