So Let the Wind Blow, Timer $SPY $QQQ $IWM

August 12, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Whoa, what low volume drama to end the week. Shooting stars now looking like launch pads for a move higher. Of course, the overbought Relative Strength Indicators give one pause, especially with low volume; but one thing we know-things overbought can get more overbought.

S&P 500 (SPY) Over 140.92 it's 2012 highs or bust. Remain cautious under 140.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 79.50 significant support. 80.00 still pivotal and over 80.60 next stop 81.84 or higher

Dow (DIA) Closed over 131.89 putting the shooting stars to bed. Also overbought on the RSIs, but not sure how much credence to give that considering the chart patterns.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Could not close above the weekly high 66.92 which means, the synchronization of all four indexes is always a key to the overall puzzle. 66.28 to hold.

ETFs:

GLD 157.96 recent swing high since this changed phases. 156.20 is key to hold to give this enough muscle to power through that resistance

XLF (Financials) Shooting stars continue to loom on daily chart unless this clears 15.06. Support now 14.79.

IBB (Biotechnology) Held 132.00 beautifully and now could be ready to play catch up.

SMH (Semiconductors) Checked out the monthly chart. If go back to 2002, peak low then and peak low in 2008 starting to look like double bottoms. Each year it's made lower highs until 2012. This year it has made a higher high than it did in 2011. A monthly close over 36.20 sometime this year and could be the monster mover for a long time.

XRT (Retail) Textbook-2 inside days, breaks the lows and drops to the fast moving average keeping the bull trend intact.

IYT (Transportation) 91.10 still key to cross

IYR (Real Estate) Under 64.00 and a lot of enthusiasm in this group will fade. Back over 66.21, party on!

USO (US Oil Fund) 35.37 has to clear for another leg up.

XLE (Energy) Another interesting monthly chart. Just need a pullback to enter right now.

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