September 30, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Monday brought an unconfirmed warning phase to the S&P 500 with a distribution day in volume and a confirmed warning phase to the Dow. NASDAQ closed basically unchanged while the small caps closed higher with an accumulation in volume. Biggest loser percentagewise-Real Estate Sector ETF. Biggest gainer-XHB Homebuilders. Second to that-Semiconductors. The talk of an island top has been silenced-gaps filled. Our portfolio shows more than a 27% gain since June 2013 but with the least number of positions on currently since before my vacation in August. We are light and ready to move to whatever tune the market has in store as October hits-from the waltz to break dancing. Please read below on thoughts as the best dance partners.
S&P 500 (SPY) Watch the 50 DMA-the unconfirmed warning phase is just that unconfirmed and weak at that.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed just shy of the 10 DMA which means over Mondays highs-should probably close your eyes and follow the leader
Dow (DIA) First has to clear 151.76 then the 50 DMA so definitely has its work cut out for it
Nasdaq (QQQ) Closed just shy of the 10 DMA which means over Mondays highs-should probably close your eyes and follow this leader as well
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Clearly a wallflower here and probably needs to stay that way for now
SMH (Semiconductors) No more breakaway gap. Let’s see if this can clear 40.20
XRT (Retail) Another viable dance partner over today’s highs
IYT (Transportation) Went right to the 50 DMA and bounced-not seeing a clear path just yet
IBB (Biotechnology) Has to clear the recent highs
IYR (Real Estate) Certainly not a good dance partner just yet
GLD To me, today’s action is negative. Unless it clears 129, looking like it can drop back down to July levels
USO (US Oil Fund)Landed right on the 200 weekly moving average-which if holds todays’ low could mean a pop from here.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Another potential dance partner over today’s highs
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