Solar ETF Has Its Sunniest Volume Pattern of the Year

December 6, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

How do Acorns, a Family’s Christmas Vacation and a Famous Russian Quote Predict the Market’s Next Moves?

To begin with: How did Commodities fare? Revisiting last Thursday night’s comments, I shall compare those words to Friday’s market action.

“ETF for Solar, TAN, there is a potential triple bottom. I would not worry about missing out however.” Friday, TAN did not do much pricewise. However, this week it's volume exploded to the highest weekly volume since June of 2014. Big Eyes here.

“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power!” Thomas Edison- over 100 years ago

“Sugar (SGG) and Cocoa (CHOC) neither overbought, both have way more potential for further gains.” Friday, Sugar made a new multi month high and then retreated. Not terribly though so long term thoughts the same. Cocoa (CHOC) traded a pathetic 350 shares. But those enthusiastic few kept it unchanged in price.

“Coffee (JO) When that turns and proves it can sustain in a strong Recovery that will be the best time to invest.” Up 1.75% Friday and worth watching this week.

“Cotton (BAL), with a weekly close in cash over 64.00 gets interesting.” Cash closed at $64.70. Yep.

“DBA or the Power Shares DB Agricultural Fund ETF. Again, watching the basing action, but no need to get super excited just yet.” Cleared the 50 DMA and now needs to do it again.

“CORN filled a gap to 22.24, which typically suggests more upside to come.” Closed Friday at 22.52.

“In substantial trading ranges, OIH and XLE should be kept on your radar screen for when those ranges reconcile. And they will.” Both tested the lower end of the range on Friday and are way up there on my radar watch this week.

From the Acorn Grew the Mighty Oak. Speaking of which, how is the Modern Family doing?

I left off last week with the Modern Family readying for their National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation.

Granddad’s Russell 2000s (IWM) got an unexpected visit from his hick Cousin Yellen (she’d kill me if she read this) and husband Uncle Eddie (now called USO or Oil).

Because IWM’s boss reneged on his holiday bonus, Cousin Yellen and Uncle Oil set fire to the market on Thursday. Friday, however, the boss’s wife talks sense into him and with the help of his Italian Banker, Draghi, the week concludes in much better shape.

But before we welcome Santa officially, let’s check in with Grandma and the offspring.

Granny Retail (XRT) traded with an inside day (trading inside the range of the day prior). She’s still Arthritic until she can clear 45.10 the 50 DMA and stay there.

Prodigal Son (KRE), Inside day as well. In much better shape, now looking for more prodigy-or a move over 46.00. Semiconductors (SMH) has the better focus with also an inside day. Yet, so close to the highs and enjoying leadership status.

Trannies (IYT) currently, holding an important area and found some relief from its recent stomach issues. But since we all know the answer to “Does a Bear s&%t in the woods?”, Trannies better let it rip.

Finally, Big Bro Biotechnology (IBB). Like Rusty, the son in National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation, he believes he sees Santa in the distance. In the film, the light is coming from the sewage treatment plant. For our Big Bro, the light will grow brighter and better if it can hold 320 and clear 334.

For this coming week, other relatives, such as the utterly senile Aunt Bethany from Russia (RSX) could show up and cause mayhem. Regardless, one thing is for certain, speaking of Russians, “out of chaos comes order.” Nietzche

S&P 500 (SPY) The elusive 210 is what we all will be looking at Monday. That and if it can hold 206.60

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. 115.45 the 50 DMA support with 116.90 pivotal and 120 the big guns resistance to clear

Dow (DIA) Repeat after me, “I do believe in 18k in the Dow.”

Nasdaq (QQQ) New weekly high close.

Volatility Index (VIX) After Thursday’s run right up to the 50 DMA and stopping, you gotta love moving averages.

XLF (Financials) 24.25 pivotal 24.97 high to clear

KRE (Regional Banks) 44.79 pivotal 45.27 some resistance, needs to clear close over 46 to keep trucking

SMH (Semiconductors) Glad it wasn’t a reversal after all. Inside day and over Thursday high should continue up

IYT (Transportation) Got my new 60+ day low but not a strong enough move to say reversal. But Monday could change that if it continues up

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day. Another reason to love the 50 DMA these days

XRT (Retail) Inside day. The 50 DMA has to clear for this to play with the others

IYR (Real Estate) Sloppy chart but holding and back over the 50 DMA. Needs to clear the 200 DMA at 75.04

ITB (US Home Construction) Although I didn’t take it, a great buy opp when it came close to those converging moving averages. Over 29, looks great

GLD (Gold Trust) Confirmed the 2-day reversal pattern and cleared 104. But this is gold. Needs to hold 102.50 level

SLV (Silver) Could be that was a double bottom for 2015. Since I love to trade silver that would be awesome. I’d like to see this hold 13.50 now

GDX (Gold Miners) Has to clear 15 to look like a true bottom

USO (US Oil Fund) Made a new 2015 low and closed with a doji day. Good volume so needs a second day of a better close

OIH (Oil Services) Held 29.25 so with some work that could be a good area to buy against

XLE (Energy) I like this if holds Friday’s low for a swing thinking it will get back over 70.00 at some point

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Feel the same about this as I do with XLE

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Triple bottoms and traded over a million shares on Friday. Need I say more?

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day consolidation in TBTs amidst the moving averages. Good to watch this too

UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day above the moving averages

EWP (Spain) Could be basing here too

EWI (Italy) Also an interesting chart