April 1, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
And so the month ends with the best first quarter performance since 1998. 1998 had drama for sure. The Russian ruble crisis resulted in a collapse of Long-term Capital Management (LTCM). In October 1998, the company was rescued, but only after the S&P 500 had collapsed 22% from its highs made in July of the same year. Since then, investors are no strangers to drama. To us, drama spells volatility. Volatility equals opportunity. Opportunity means profits for the educated, active investor. So, no worries on what may lie ahead. In parody to the words of the world's most interesting man, "Stay frosty my friends."
Dow (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY) Return over the fast moving average and doji day. Unless it fails Friday's low, positive.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Here's where my eyes will be. Like the other indexes, had the possible new high reversal candle pattern. Unlike the other indexes, closed weak, failing to sustain over the fast moving average.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Second reason for pause. Along with the reversal pattern from new highs, Friday concludes with a bearish engulfing pattern.
ETFS:
GLD Good comeback and stuck in no man's land.
XLF (Financials) A hammer candle which could like it was pushed higher since barely cleared the fast moving average.
IBB (Biotechnology) Can go either way since new weekly and monthly high close, but not on the daily. Must clear last week's high
SMH (Semiconductors) Best monthly close since 2004. Also, needs to clear last week's high
XRT (Retail) Day three of correction from the possible reversal pattern.
IYT (Transportation) Over Friday's high would be a good sign for this group.
IYR (Real Estate) Marginally closed above 62.00 which if holds is another good sign in this group
XLE (Energy) held the 200 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) Any sign of weakness and still a go to sector to hunt for shorts.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Unless it breaks 19.70, looking to buy dips
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