August 1, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Although it traded beneath the 200 DMA, it did not close beneath. If we get 2 closes in a row beneath 128.70 that would put it in a Distribution Phase. SPY is even more oversold that it was last week. Above 129.10 could see a pop. But now, unless it closes back above 131, sell rallies, especially on stocks with weak daily chart setups. The longer term bullish trend on the weekly and monthly still intact for now.
QQQ 56.90 still underlying support on the daily chart. A move above 57.87 positive although the slope on the 50 DMA now negative. BIDU AAPL GOOG all helping keep Nasdaq stronger. Question is how long will the euphoria from recent earnings hold up?
IWM Unconfirmed Distribution Phase with first close under the 200 DMA. 50 weekly moving average still intact at 77.67. Also way oversold. Above 80 would be a good sign that the 200 DMA may remain intact.
ETFs:
GLD Today's sell off worked off some overbought conditions on the daily and weekly. 156.73 the 10 DMA and still important area to hold.
XLE Held the 70 EMA. Will watch for a possible long over the FTP, depending on intraday setup with risk.
OIH** Stronger than XLE. Will be watching the oil and energy sectors as better candidates for a bounce if the market firms.
IYT 91.50 the 50 weekly moving average and major support. Otherwise, over 93.30 new life.
FXI **Held key support at the 200 weekly moving average. Watch for a hold over 42.25.
XLF Loves 14.62. Over 15.12 back in business.
Note-Volatility has blown out over last week. Would not be surprised to see volatility come in from here-interesting options play to short volatility in the near term.
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