September 22, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY 110.27 low from early August. Double the recent volume for big distribution day. Back under the 200 weekly moving average and broke under a parallel channel. Oversold on daily, not weekly so at this point see no bottoming indicators (then again never saw any even when it rallied). Now, under the recent low, unless some manipulation happens or Germany bails out Europe, can see 87.00 the last swing low in 2009 before the run up.
DIA Back in August, this never closed under the 200 weekly and such is still the case. See 96.00 as ultimate support and unless it clears 111 on the upside, would continue to sell rallies.
QQQ Since it gapped well under 55.00, the trade was the opening range reversal off of the highs for a short. 52.00 next level and still a long way off from the August low 49.93 and the 200 weekly at 45.00. But, since AAPL and AMZN are still holding up, would not be surprised to see a bounce to test the 55.00 level, where the moving averages are.
IWM Move on breakdown measure to 50.00, so unless it breaks today's high, still very vulnerable. Above today's high could see a bounce back up to 69.00 without violation of the trend.
ETFs:
GLD**Caught a bounce which I actively tweeted today but decided to exit because of the gap down, the failure to close above the 50 DMA and the huge distribution in volume. Now in an unconfirmed weak warning phase so above the 50 DMA and today’s high, will look to re enter the long. But only in that scenario.
SLV "The much better short should metals start to fail.." Written Tuesday..but the huge gap down made the risk big unless you caught the OR high failure which I totally missed.
SMH If there is any sector/group that could potentially bounce; this is the top of my list.
REE Haven't thought about this in a really long time, but noticed it is one of the few that is holding the 200 weekly moving average and returned to the breakout level from 2010 at 6.45 although closed underneath.
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