Stock Market Divergence Led by Adv/Decline in Nasdaq

September 19, 2011

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


SPY Gapped lower and then held the 10 DMA later filling the gap left from Friday's low, closing just beneath. Volume super light again which is not surprising ahead of the FOMC. Can now see either 115 or 123 as it's been all about Nasdaq.

DIA  I did not even realize I wrote 112.30 key support and today's low was 112.29. That means that under that level more selling pressure, otherwise, has yet to test the 50 DMA overhead.

QQQ ChartQQQ** AAPL and AMZN gave this the love today. They make up 40% of the QQQ. The advance/decline-under 22% of the Nasdaq stocks were unchanged to positive. (WYNN in there too) Now, a confirmed phase change to Accumulation. Noticed that 57.00 was the breaking point after the run to new highs in late July. It's possible we can rally and hold over 57.00, test the old high and then see selling as we near the end of the quarter-possible. It is also possible we will see a break of 55.00 and renewed selling pressure. The leaders have made giant moves and when giants fall they make a loud bang. Now overbought with little volume today-will wait for the 2.00 range of support/resistance breakout/breakdown to emerge.

IWM Filled the gap left from Friday's low and held the support 69.50 perfectly. Over 71.00 encouraging, under today's low not so much.

ETFs:

GLD The remaining long from Friday were exited under the lows from Friday. Tested and held last week's low. Now, will look for a new setup.

SLV Still aside but like the test and hold of 38.05.

SMH Tested and held the 50 DMA, filled the gap to Friday's low. Exited the long today but will look at a reentry.

XRT I could not short this as I had planned today because TradeStation said "hard to borrow." Was not happy with the lack of liquidity in the ultrashort RETL. In a Death cross now which will be negated only with a close above 50.50.

XLF Such a party pooper and has been since 2008. 12.67 a good area to watch.

IYT 85.00 weekly resistance and 81.45 now support.  Since transportation tends to be a great overall gauge, was the first to collapse from the highs in May and has to stay at the party to keep the rally going.

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