August 17, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Continues to hold the adaptive MA at 117.98. Directionless day with light volume which could be a sign of weariness of traders, vacation time before it's back to school or that interest is drying up in the current bear phase. There have been 6 Distribution Days in volume in the last 2 weeks and only 1 Accumulation day. Classically, unless we get another 3-4 good days of accumulation in volume with higher prices, the most we can say is that the market is still bearish and any dead cat bounce should be shorted. There are several stocks however that are hanging tough and close to or above all time highs like CF. This too is curious all things considered.
DIA 114.25 is a big number to watch on a weekly closing basis. It was the close before the US was downgraded. Now, the MACD is crossing which is the best indication I can see for a possible rally from here considering this chart still looks the best as it remains in a Distribution Phase.
QQQ Barely holding the adaptive moving average at 53.60. Entered a Death Cross today. At this point needs to clear 54.33 to get going again. Except for AAPL, many of the leading stocks have broken down. A rally from this point will most likely be led by the midcaps and S & P 500 stocks.
IWM 69.60 now must hold and with positive pivots, a cross over 70.57 could lead to a rally to 72.00, Hard to get too excited about a rally for anything more than a good daytrade and at most miniswing trade unless volume patterns return.
ETFs:
GLD Recommended reentering long over 170.75. Now, the recent high 175.13 could provide resistance, but overall, GLD strong uptrend intact.
SLV 38.90 now key support on the fast moving average.
IBB Once this broke under the FTP, it was a sign that this potential leader was out of gas. With negative pivots, now if cannot get back over 93.00 more weakness could be coming.
IYR MACD crossed and positive pivots.
SMH 29.40 still pivotal, over 29.90 reverses trend to up and under 29.40 see 28.60 level next support.
IYT Weekly chart oversold. Over 83.65 could see a relief rally
OIH** Tested the 200 weekly moving average again. Over 135.15 could see more upside to 145 level.
TLT Another beautiful reversal. We know interest rates cannot go to zero, but at this point, the trend is too strong to fight.
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