August 22, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY I keep hollering about volume. Today, volume was light. Plus, we could not get back over the 200 weekly moving average. The best we can say is that the low from Friday held. Nothing goes down forever and we know rallies in bear markets can be vicious, but as of yet, see no signs of a blow off dump.
DIA Positive pivots tomorrow. If it opens above that level could have a low risk buy against today's low 108.01. But a break of the low and the 200 weekly moving average is at 107.04. Over 111.30 would be a good close and perhaps, especially if there is volume, a reason to stay long.
QQQ Still lots of room to the 200 weekly moving average below. And now a bear flag forming on the weekly chart as well that breaks down under 49.99 with an inside day. Only a move and close above today's high 51.24 would negate that.
IWM Broke and closed under the 200 weekly moving average again now at 65.47. Oversold on the weekly chart, and just about now on the daily as well. 63.76 recent low-still a bit away.
ETFs:
GLD See no signs yet of a top and I am finding amusement and all of the people who keep trying to be the hero that calls one. Most recent long entry was at 170.75. Still long.
SLV Friday saw the silver lining. Made its move closing the highest since 45-46 next target. 41.85 should now hold.
The ultrashorts SKF FAZ SDS TWM QID -buying dips and Opening Range reversals the way to go.
IYR Unless it crosses over 54.50, would still look to sell rallies. The 200 weekly moving average is 50.95.
USO** Doji day and came just shy of the adaptive moving average at 32.88. The open/close price is 32.72 which is now pivotal. If it takes out the adaptive, could see a move to the gap fill at 33.90. Otherwise, if fails the adaptive moving average and the pivots could look to short.
SMH**Inside day and positive pivots. I am mentioning this because it is holding the 200 weekly moving average at 27.34, at least for now. If clears today's high will look to go long for a rally. Question will be how far? The adaptive moving average is at 29.46. Last week's high was 29.97.
TLT** 2 Inside days and low volume. First time pivots are negative since 8/15. If it fails 110.85, could be time to check out the TBT. However, let's not forget that this is in a strong bullish phase so another day of a sell off and could be setting up for a new long.
UUP Possible double bottom at 20.84. A move over 21.30 will confirm.
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