August 16, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Held the fast moving average at 118.42 and still a bit away from the adaptive MA. We had the one day of accumulation in volume on August 9th when it made a peak low and closed strong. After that day, although it had follow through to the upside, it never had one more day of accumulation in volume. In fact, there have been 5 Distribution Days in volume in the last 2 weeks and today the 6th occurred. With pivots negative and price action under S1, now must clear R1 to reverse the downtrend.
DIA Better chance to show signs of more rally since not in a bearish phase. Holding the fast moving average at 112.73. Plus, did not have a Distribution Day in volume like SPY did. Above 115, could be good sign of strength. Otherwise, under today's low, next support 111.25
QQQ Similar volume pattern to SPY. But, held S1 so intraday stronger chart. Weekly chart better than the other indexes as well. Above R1, would follow it up. But, under today's low, with volume patterns negative, expect weakness to 52.30 area support.
IWM Broke 70.83 but with the choppy action, never got much follow through to the downside even though it closed weak with same negative volume patterns as the others. 71.34 reverses the pattern, under 69.60, looking at the 200 DMA next support.
ETFs:
GLD Recommended reentering long over 170.75. Now, the recent high 175.13 could provide resistance, but overall, GLD strong uptrend intact.
SLV 38.18 now key support on the fast moving average. Lagging behind GLD with resistance now 39.40 area to get through
IBB Still one to follow for the lead. Held S1, positive pivots, a buy if holds 93.00 level. Can ultimately test 98.00 the 200 DMA level. IYR also positive pivots.
XLY** Also positive pivots with a doji day. 36.40 big pivotal area and over the FTP.
SMH 29.40 is the close of 2 weeks ago pre downgrade. Very choppy action in this ETF and now, with 29.40 pivotal, over 29.92 reverses trend to up and under 29.40 see 28.60 level next support.
IYT "Under 83.44 also starts to look vulnerable." From last night. But, now, the weekly is back to oversold. Over today's high could see a relief rally.
XLF The ultrashort SKF turned out to be a good trade if bought on the pivot. Otherwise, super choppy. Again, over today's high compelling, otherwise, back to recent lows.
XRT Similar to XLF, looks good over today's high.
TLT Beautiful reversal after the Second Inside day. We know interest rates cannot go to zero, but at this point, the trend is too strong to fight.
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