January 23, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
First round of the big guns reported. All reported better than expected and all rallied substantially post market. That could mean a good run coming in technology (XLK) and semiconductors. That could also mean profit taking in energy, oil and commodities. However, a lot of that will have to do with rates, which dropped today. Retail, real estate and transportation-although all doing well, are extended. The financial ETF took out 2011 highs. Market could be approaching a near-term top, but I would rather scope out the next sector to hang out with. That's been the most fun!
S&P 500 (SPY) Like so many instruments, this has a super high 2-day RSI. But, no type of blow off rally feel since volume is light.
Russell 2000 (IWM) The power of the small caps indeed. Perhaps resistance overhead at the Bollinger bands where it stopped today.
Dow (DIA) 136.48 the 2012 high now pivotal. Now that IBM reported, would expect a gap higher. Question will be if it holds.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 70.58 is the 2012 high-not even a factor yet. 67.34 was 2013 high which it cleared Thursday but remains below. GOOG reported. AAPL is next.
ETFs:
GLD I still maintain the best scenario overall is for GLD to retreat. But, right now, the longs have it with the 5O DMA the obvious resistance to clear.
XLF (Financials) Cleared 17.20 the 2011 high and 20 the ultimate target. 17.00 is the best support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.17 a good area to clear and today's low good to hold
XRT (Retail) Overbought.
IYT (Transportation) Overbought
IYR (Real Estate) Not as excited about this group as I was in 2012. The high from 2012 68.26, a bit closer than where it was last week.
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00 and closed right there. If good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
OIH (Oil Services) Approaching overbought
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high. Like to see some digestion since overbought now on daily RSI.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Has to hold today's low
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