October 4, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Do I think that the good news from our manufacturing sector expanding had anything to do with today's rally in the last 30 minutes? No. But, I would like to point out a couple of tidbits I tweeted today. One is that Nasdaq held the August low and two is that so did XLK even after the selloff in AAPL. Volume and candle patterns are good; we need a higher close with good volume by week's end. Index analysis below.
SPY Nice spike in volume with an Accumulation day, back through the August low, but unlike 2 other indexes, did not produce a bullish engulfing pattern. Back through the 200 weekly moving average starts to get impressive. But for now, a short covering rally with decent but not knock your socks off volume.
DIA Tried to fail the 200 weekly moving average and the August low, but closed above with good volume yet no bullish engulfing pattern.
QQQ Did its job holding August low. Bullish engulfing pattern and good volume. Last night wrote "Only a move above 52.30 would look encouraging for the now former leading stocks." Would be nice.
IWM Through 65.20 very encouraging after the bullish candle. Looking back at July 2010, spiked lower, had a bullish candle with good volume and never took out the low of the spike. It took a couple of days to digest and then off it went.
ETFs:
GLD Beautiful 4.00 short under Monday low, which we caught by shorting SLV instead. Covered with the end of day strength. Bounced 3rd times off of the 160 EMA. Now, no opinion rather, waiting to see which way new range 155-162 breaks.
XLK* (Technology) Held the 80 month moving average Now, with long term positive trend still intact, watching to see if it can continue to lead the charge.
SMH (Semiconductors) Unlike XLK, broke the 80 monthly MA but held the 200 weekly and August low.
IBB (Biotechnology) Under 93.50 is where this fell apart. But, longer term trend still positive.
XLE (Energy) Bullish engulfing pattern with spike in volume. Overhead resistance at 60.00. Want to see 57.00 hold.
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) soared again. 123.15 old high failed today with a distribution day in volume.
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