June 6, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
About those reversal patterns. One key indication is when a new 60 day plus low is made (even more powerful when the low is on or near a major simple moving average), then it (depending upon which instrument) closes in the top 25% of its intraday range. As with every one of our indicators, confirmation is key. Only one group has this pattern (Real Estate). The key indexes can boast holding the nearby moving averages and closing above Wednesday’s lows. Therefore, “Put on a Happy Face” as we head into the US Employment Numbers, flushed with cash and ready to party or equally ready to be grateful for the discipline to await confirmation!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the 50 DMA with what I read someone call the “too obvious” bounce. However, a darn good start as we head to the end of the week. 164-165 is the overhead resistance to clear
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 96.50 level I wrote about and now, has to clear 98.00 next resistance
Dow (DIA) Held the 50 DMA with 151-152 the area to clear
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the runaway gap and now has to clear 73.00. Like all the indexes and previous comments above, another day of confirmation that the correction is over is super necessary before we get too excited
ETFs:
GLD Touched the 137 resistance after holding the 134 support. I rather wait for the short then call for the bottom-but for now, happy on the sidelines
XLF (Financials) Back in the box (at the risk of overusing a term). More importantly proved that 19.50 is indeed pivotal. Now, 19.78 next hurdle
IBB (Biotechnology) Second indication of a reversal is when we go to a one day unconfirmed phase change, only to go back to a better but equally unconfirmed phase change the next day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Underperformed, but holding the May lows so far.
XRT (Retail) Impressive close at the end of day as it also never really broke as hard as the other groups making this a great place to look at tomorrow over 78.00
IYR (Real Estate) Classic reversal pattern looking for the confirmation
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Broke then came back through 66.00. Very interested to see what happens here tomorrow
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