December 19, 2017
By Mish Schneider
Slow. So slow that even Tales and Trades from the Crypto-currencies were dull.
Some instruments perked up. JD Inc, for example, rose over 3% on big volume.
Twitter (TWTR) rose more than 1.66% to make another new multi-year high, also on big volume.
Conversely, with huge firming of interest rates (the 20+ Treasury Year Long Bonds -TLT), fell 1.28%.
That wreaked havoc in interest rate sensitive instruments such as Real Estate REITs (IYR) and Homebuilder stocks like KB Homes (KBH).
Bitcoin fell to $17,841.94. That’s nearly 6% lower than its recent highs.
Yet, the Modern Family held up relatively well ahead of the what seems inevitable, the passing of the tax reform bill in the Senate.
So, in the “you decide what hits 25,000 first”-the Dow or Bitcoin, what say you?
I suspect that starting Wednesday and until after New Year’s, the market will continue to slow down.
But will a slowdown in activity lead to a sell off or a rally?
Besides watching the Modern Family, I suggest keeping eyes on the interest rates and the U.S. Dollar.
The one-day trend we witnessed today-a declining dollar along with rising interest rates, if continues, will influence the overall macro picture.
When, not if the tax reform passes, corporations will get huge tax cuts.
A weaker dollar will make the cost of goods more attractive. However, what could cancel that out is a higher cost to borrow money.
I’m not crying for the corporations mind you. I am more concerned for the consumer.
Imagine if inflation picks up because of a declining dollar, while rising interest rates put pressure on consumer confidence, hence the economy.
What that could mean for the market?
The dollar buys less while borrowing dollars costs more. Does that sound good to you?
It will most likely be a boon for cryptocurrencies. Yet, as far as 25,000 in the Dow? Should be the plot for a new episode of Terror-Tales from the Crypt.
S&P 500 (SPY) No runaway gap with some decent selling. 266 pivotal support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Couldn’t tackle recent highs and closed weakest of the indices. 151.50 then 150 support
Dow (DIA) No runaway gap. 245 the major support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) No runaway gap. 156 support. BTW, IWM did not have a runaway-so that’s a big reason he’s the Granddaddy of the Modern Family.
KRE (Regional Banks) 59.00 pivotal support
SMH (Semiconductors) Range sits between 100-96.50 to break
IYT (Transportation) 187.50 the big underlying support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Through 107.50 see 110 at least. Under 105 some trouble.
XRT (Retail) 46.00 substantial resistance with 44.45 pivotal support
GLD (Gold Trust) We will see what this has if it can hold 119.20 area
SLV (Silver) Must fill gap to 15.33
GDX (Gold Miners) 21.60 pivotal with a move over 22.32 better
XME (S&P Metals and Mining) I gave you this trade at 32.00-now trading 34.31 or profit taking time on some
USO (US Oil Fund) I like this still
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Waiting for 35.00 to clear and close above
TAN (Solar Energy) 24.20 support
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Under 127 can see 125.50-check. Now, 124.35 support to hold
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.24-24.45 range I am watching to break one way or another
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