August 16, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I would like to personally thank the gods of trading for reading my plea of releasing the pause button. This was the best volume we have seen since August 7th, but not nearly enough to start predicting a 'blow off" rally. Volume could not make it to its daily average. Most likely scenario-a new round of digestion as August enters final 2 weeks, then another run.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.21 is 2012 high. Today's high 142.16. But everything worked. The inside day, patience during consolidation, discipline, trading plan and trust in the phase.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke 80.40-50 for next leg up. 81.84 July high and real far from 2012 high. That means, that if anything should roll over, look here first. That would likely look like a break of 80.00.
Dow (DIA) 133.14 the 2012 high.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.55 the 2012 high. If long, would be looking at what happens up here to see if can clear or not. Not saying it's the top, but with overbought RSIs, trimming on big profits not such a bad idea ahead of a weekend.
ETFs:
GLD Will this have what it takes to get through 158?
XLF (Financials) Kind of an anemic run past 15.06. Although I like the basing action all year, only ½ way to the 2012 highs. Keep eyes here
IBB (Biotechnology) Maybe this sector needs a serious rest after leading the charge all year.
SMH (Semiconductors) Matched the closing price from 08/10. Over 33.90 will look for the 2012 high
XRT (Retail) Like to see 60.86 hold now.
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed phase change to bullish. Now, can buy dips more safely
IYR (Real Estate) Similar to biotech-led the charge, now dragging along for the ride, which means could be vulnerable on any correction
USO (US Oil Fund) Getting closer to my target of 36.50 level
OIH (Oil Services) Been positive on this group since mid-July when the phase went to recovery
XLE (Energy) If good, has more clearance to go above the recent consolidation.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Big volume could mean this ran up too fast too enthusiastically.
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