September 10, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Well, perhaps the Rodney Dangerfield quote was timelier than I even imagined! After testing the last swing high in S&P 500 from 2008 before the huge downturn, the late day selloff could have a short-term impact, which means, a correction in what remains a solid bullish phase. Question is always how big a correction? The first obvious place to look is at the nearest moving averages. For us, it's the fast or 10 day moving averages in all indexes. Next place is the volume-so far, the accumulation days outnumber the distribution days. Monday's volume was light. A major concern is the number or new 60-day highs that were made and consequently, how many of them closed on their intraday lows.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.00 is the fast moving average
Russell 2000 (IWM) A tell-tale sign was that this could not get above 84.66, the 2012 high from March. 82.20 is the fast moving average support to watch
Dow (DIA) Monday high took out 133.14 high made in May by 2 ticks. Then, the last ½ hour, this sold off hard. 131.25 is the fast moving average
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The bigger they are the harder they fall. This is on the fast moving average after new decade highs. 68.42 is the low from last Thursday. If that breaks, 67.50 is last week's low.
ETFs:
GLD Has a gap to fill to 165.78 from last Thursday. Better support 163.75 is the fast moving average.
XLF (Financials) Correction begins with 15.26 the fast moving average to watch.
IBB (Biotechnology) 137.80 the fast moving average. This has been a year of new highs, pause, correction, then resumption of the rally. A while back I wrote that each month in 2012 saw a higher close. It will be when that reverses we can begin to say a more serious correction is in store.
SMH (Semiconductors) Broke the 200 DMA and now looks like the 50 DMA at 32.26 is the next area to watch.
XRT (Retail) After new yearly highs, closed on the intraday lows.
IYT (Transportation) Although stronger on Monday, tested and could not close above the 200 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) 65.80 is the fast moving average
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day with sideways action. Under 35.00 and over 36.70 breaks the recent range one way or another
OIH (Oil Services) 41.75 recent high to clear. 40.45 the fast moving average.
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