April 16, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Friday the markets are closed, and I am taking a brief hiatus beginning Thursday the 17th, back Monday the 21st.
In the past week I covered the 20+ year long bonds, a few picks that are holding up very well, and the MAGS ETF with a warning about the MAG7.
For the long weekend, we will look at the Economic Modern Family and what they are telling us right now.
The charts are weekly charts using the 50- and 200-week moving averages.
With our Granny Retail indicator, we see indecision with this week’s trading range inside last week’s range.
XRT failed the weekly moving averages a while ago. However, we are watching $64 very carefully.
A break under 64 and should April close the month beneath there, we will have little confidence in the economy avoiding recession.
Granddad Russell 2000 IWM has already broken the 80-month moving average, or the 6–8-year business cycle for the first time since it did so briefly in 2023.
With an inside week like XRT, the signs are not great.
Biotechnology IBB with threats of tariffs, I would simply avoid.
Semiconductors SMH, holds steadfast above the 200-WMA even in the face of the tariffs and chip ban to China.
However, SMH is contracting from its 2-year business cycle growth period.
Should the 200-WMA fail, or $165, we would be even more cautious.
As for the rest of the Family,
Transportation IYT has not traded under the 80-month MA since Covid.
That level comes in just under 57.00, close.
Regional Banks KRE failed the key moving averages already.
We may see some support around the June 2024 lows or 45.
All in all, the Family is not feeling all Easter Bunny and eggs.
Bitcoin BTCUSD, the newest family member, is feeling a wee bit better.
Keep your eyes on 81,000. That is the support to hold.
Have a wonderful long weekend!
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
BNN Bloomberg How the price has been forecasting the bearishness while gold remains bullish 04-16-25
Business First AM Is this dip a buy opportunity in ABBV? 04-14-25
Podcast with Geoff Bysshe Mish and Geoff illustrate the difference between a market bottom and tradeable bounce 04-15-25
Business First AM All About Uranium 04-14-25
Coming Up:
April 23 The Street.com
April 25 Yahoo Finance
April 28 Maggie Lake
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 520 support or see 500
Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 pivotal-193 resistance
Dow (DIA) 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 440 pivotal area to clear or fail
Regional banks (KRE) 50 pivotal
Semiconductors (SMH) 165 key support
Transportation (IYT) 57 key support
Biotechnology (IBB) 115 support 120 resistance
Retail (XRT) 64 key to hold. 69 resistance
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
