The Economic Modern Family Breaks for Easter

April 16, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Friday the markets are closed, and I am taking a brief hiatus beginning Thursday the 17th, back Monday the 21st.

In the past week I covered the 20+ year long bonds, a few picks that are holding up very well, and the MAGS ETF with a warning about the MAG7.

For the long weekend, we will look at the Economic Modern Family and what they are telling us right now.

The charts are weekly charts using the 50- and 200-week moving averages.

With our Granny Retail indicator, we see indecision with this week’s trading range inside last week’s range.

XRT failed the weekly moving averages a while ago. However, we are watching $64 very carefully.

A break under 64 and should April close the month beneath there, we will have little confidence in the economy avoiding recession.

Granddad Russell 2000 IWM has already broken the 80-month moving average, or the 6–8-year business cycle for the first time since it did so briefly in 2023.

With an inside week like XRT, the signs are not great.

Biotechnology IBB with threats of tariffs, I would simply avoid.

Semiconductors SMH, holds steadfast above the 200-WMA even in the face of the tariffs and chip ban to China.

However, SMH is contracting from its 2-year business cycle growth period.

Should the 200-WMA fail, or $165, we would be even more cautious.

As for the rest of the Family,

Transportation IYT has not traded under the 80-month MA since Covid.

That level comes in just under 57.00, close.

Regional Banks KRE failed the key moving averages already.

We may see some support around the June 2024 lows or 45.

All in all, the Family is not feeling all Easter Bunny and eggs.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, the newest family member, is feeling a wee bit better.

Keep your eyes on 81,000. That is the support to hold.

Have a wonderful long weekend!

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

-----Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth

Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!