The Ides or Strides Of March? $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

March 14, 2013

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


All over the news: Market closes just shy of the 2007 high. Is that the finish line? Since the market has literally traveled straight up to get there, be prepared for one of four possibilities. One: We get there; take it out, close below, correction time. Two: We get there and reverse immediately. Three: We get there; blow through and onto new highs. Four: We don't get there and this was it. Whatever happens, this has been so much fun! Thank you, the goddess of trading!

S&P 500 (SPY) The 2007 high still in gear 157.52. A clear indication of which of the four scenarios will play out is if it breaks Thursday's gap low of 156.42.

Russell 2000 (IWM) After closing Wednesday over 93.75, it was the small caps which flexed its muscles. Looking at this, scenario three seems likely. However, 93.75 remains pivotal

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 69.00 has to clear and 68.00 has to hold.

ETFs:

GLD After the gap up on the 12th, it filled the gap making 153 the make or break area.

XLF (Financials) Good volume on today's move higher. Which could mean a parabolic move is still in play, or it could be a blow-off scenario that is in the works.

IBB (Biotechnology) - As one of the surprising leaders in the last few weeks, I would keep a close eye on this for signs of a potential roll-over.

SMH (Semiconductors): It's all about 36.00-and she is such a tease, closing right there!

XRT (Retail) - Continues to make new highs on consumer spending fever.

IYT (Transportation) After clearing 110, reached a profit target today at 112.

IYR (Real Estate) Did what it had to do, and needs to continue to hold today's low.

USO (US Oil Fund)- Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation with an inside day.

OIH (Oil Services) After an inside day, today broke above a several week base.

XLE (Energy)- This did exactly what the retail sector did, got through 2013 highs and kept on going.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)- 68.00 to hold as this continues its basing action.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)- As one of my favorite sectors this year, now trading at the top of a trendline going back to 2008.

XHB (Homebuilders) Still has to clear 30.00

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