The Long Bonds Update

July 22, 2024

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Over the weekend we covered the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family.

All the original Modern Family (Russell 2000 IWM, Retail XRT, Transportation IYT, Regional Banks KRE, Biotechnology IBB, and Semiconductors SMH), gained.

Our newest member, Bitcoin, also gained.

We also looked at NASDAQ. That too (QQQ) gained.

In fact, QQQ gained the most percentagewise.

We could say All in the Family has begun this week happy and healthy.

Now, let’s look at the long bonds TLT.

With mixed economic signals, an upcoming FOMC, earnings on tap, and the election cycle upon us in full swing, the TLT is a moving piece to watch for many reasons.

On the positive side for the overall market, SPY maintains its lead over TLT.

For risk on, that is exactly what you want to see.

As far as price, TLT failed to pierce the July 6-month calendar range high (green horizontal line).

However, the price sits above the 50-DMA (blue) after a golden cross last week.

TLT is in a bullish phase.

On Real Motion, the red dots sit on the 50-DMA, which means at this point, the momentum is in line with price.

What we can conclude is that TLT is holding up as rates have peaked.

Nonetheless, we have yet to see real evidence of rates coming down, which is ok provided the economy can hang in there.

Should TLT clear July highs, we see a potential shift in the landscape with fears of recession starting to emerge.

To find out more about calendar ranges, momentum and leadership indicators, please contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant,

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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