The Market Between a Cliff and a Bar Place

April 25, 2018

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankAfter a tumultuous start of the week, today, our Brown Earth Dog (symbol of this year’s Chinese New Year) took a snooze.

With the sea and a pool as surrounding bodies of water, should the tide go out, the chance of the dog’s immersion in water is slimmer.

Conversely, should the tide come in and the sea rise, our brown earth dog will have to either escape through the bars quickly, dog paddle with hopes he doesn’t run out of breath or gulp-drown.

Transportation (IYT), an instrument that has so very often helped us determine next market moves, is the tide.

We can call IYT the sea. The pool is represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM).

The bars are the negative factors looming as reminders.

Should the tides rise, our pooch will have a tough time treading the market waters.

Once again though, both IYT and IWM saved the day by maintaining their bull phases, thus allowing our sleeping dog to lie.

Can IWM and IYT keep the dog and traders safely between the rocky cliffs and a bar place?

Yesterday, IYT went into an unconfirmed warning phase.

Today, after a scary open, it led the way back over the 50-DMA and back into an unconfirmed bullish phase.

It needs to hold above that 50-DMA (188.48) again tomorrow to confirm.

The Russell 2000 maintained its bullish phase marginally holding above the 50-DMA at 153.86.

If they do their job, then we can look at the rest of the family to hang tough as well.

Semiconductors must hold the key 50-week moving average at 95.96.

Granny Retail (XRT) must hold around 44.40.

Biotechnology (IBB) in a distribution phase, must hold 101.96 the 200 week moving average.

And Regional Banks (KRE), in a bullish phase, has to hold 61.85.

Lastly, watch Apple’s (AAPL) path, Tim Cook met with Trump today. I did not see any tangible results from that meeting.

Nevertheless, AAPL closed green but with an inside trading day, meaning it traded within yesterday’s trading range.

As an influencer, how Tuesday’s range reconciles (above 166.33 or below 161.22), could be the difference between throwing our dog a lifeline, or a tsunami.

S&P 500 (SPY) 260.50 is the 200 DMA. 266-267 resistance.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 153.85 and above keeps it in a bullish phase-most important level to know

Dow (DIA) 236.54 is the 200 DMA. Over 245-246 way better

Nasdaq (QQQ) 154.54 is the 200 DMA. Remember, longer term charts are still intact for the bulls. Noise until it’s not. 162.50

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