The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer than You Can Remain Solvent

December 15, 2020

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Written by Mish and Forrest

In the past month we have written about the Russell 2000 (IWM) Index leading the market higher.

Recently, IWM's stellar performance has revealed it as the new superhero of Mish’s Economic Modern Family.

Today was no exception as Grandad IWM was able to make all time highs pulling ahead of the other major indices.

This year has seen a rise in first time investors, as many decided the best opportunities for their stimulus checks to grow are in the market.

IWMs growth could be linked with the rotation out of large cap companies, with new investors searching for cheaper rapid growth stocks.

While IWM broke to new highs, let’s see if the other family members are telling the same story.

Yesterday transportation IYT looked the most worrisome, though today it was able to close over Monday's low of 218.38.

Granny Retail (XRT) also fell Monday, but today was able to move up clearing most of last week's trading range.

Now she sits close to new highs at 62.75.

Brother Biotechnology (IBB) held its gap made from Monday at 152.94.

Sister semiconductors (SMH) had a small trading range day with 221.79 the  next high to clear.

Regional banks, the underperformer of the Family, continues to lag, but for how much longer we wonder?

Tuesday’s inside day brings KRE closer to new multi-months highs, with the real test coming up at the 200 week moving average sitting at 52.70.

We are still watching the long bonds, high grade bonds and junk bonds or the outliers.

Clearly with FOMC, the Fed is still very much present in LQD and HYG.

And as far as the TLTs they are not over the key area to cause concern, but holding nevertheless.

Irrational exuberance? Yes. But the top? Not yet.

Please join Mish, Samantha LaDuc and Sang Lucci at 4PM ET Thursday December 17th for a discussion on women and trading-sharing stories, the ups and the downs -plus what has changed in the last 2 years.


S&P 500 (SPY) 371.05 Resistance. 366.74 Support.

Russell 2000 (IWM) New all time highs.

Dow (DIA) Inside day. 298.68 support.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 300 Key support. 308.60 Resistance.

KRE (Regional Banks) Resistance 200 week moving average 52.70 to clear. Support 48.48

SMH (Semiconductors) Would like to see this close over the 10-DMA at 215.53

IYT (Transportation) Holding over Monday low 218.38. Main support 212.45 the 50-DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) Watch for this to hold over 152.94

XRT (Retail)  59.24 support. 62.75 resistance.

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