March 16, 2017
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
To the right is a screenshot taken today of all six members of the Modern Family.
The dotted line represents the 50 daily moving average. The solid line the 200 day moving average.
Semiconductors (SMH) sit smugly in a strong bullish phase well above the 50 DMA.
Biotechnology (IBB) also sits well above both moving averages. However, a big difference not illustrated is that while SMH is on new all-time highs, IBB’s all-time high is 400.79 made late July 2015. Striking difference.
The Russell 2000 sits slightly above the 50-DMA. However, before 2 days ago, IWM was in a warning phase.
Regional Banks (KRE) rests just atop the 50 DMA.
Transportation (IYT) is in a warning phase even after yesterday’s rally.
Retail (XRT) currently lives in a bearish phase.
Why do we rely on the Modern Family for longer range forecasting?
Why should the current disparity in their phases raise red flags?
Yesterday, after the Fed announced the .25% rise in interest rates, Oil, Gold, the Euro, Emerging Markets and most Equities flew.
The 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) rose.
Today, the TLTs fell just beneath 118, a pivotal number. Oil, and several energy related instruments weakened. Gold maintained its gains confirming a recovery phase. The Euro shot up to new multi-week highs.
The Family rotated but maintained its disparate relationships. Biotech and Transportation weakened. Semiconductors closed unchanged.
The Russell 2000, Retail and Regional Banks all gained.
The market wears many faces. One could surmise that it reflects the many faces of our current administration. That uncertainty of which mask shows up when can and should impact the market’s next direction.
The Family, particularly Transportation, Regional Banks and the Russell 2000 should all be watched carefully.
Tonight, I will present more on how to identify phases and how when you understand the rotations and inter-relationships of the Modern Family, you will keep one step ahead of the curve.
Please click on the link below to join me this evening at 8:30 PM Eastern Standard Time for a free webinar called, "How To Catch Big Swing Trades Using 'Market Phases' In Any Market Conditions WITHOUT Time Consuming Analysis!"
https://marketgauge.leadpages.co/mmma-20170316-dv/
Hope to see you there!
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. 237.65 now pivotal number. 240 the price to beat
Russell 2000 (IWM) Confirmed the bullish phase. 139 next barrier to clear and 136.75 super important support to hold.
Dow (DIA) Should clear 210.32. If can’t and breaks below 209, caution
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day which means less exuberance but that’s all.
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day with 56.42 the 50 DMA and 57.50 the point to clear to sigh relief.
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs although less convincingly
IYT (Transportation) 167.35-168 the 50 DMA area must clear to get this back in the game-and for confidence in the economy
IBB (Biotechnology) Today should have been an up day here so if long, watch 295 to hold
XRT (Retail) Must remain above 42.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and back below the 50 DMA
GLD (Gold Trust) 115.25 is the closest support if good
SLV (Silver) 16.30 nearest support bulls should want to see hold
GDX (Gold Miners) 22.55-23.40 range to break one way or another
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Not surprising considering the recent high volume.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) 30.46 a good place to hold on closing basis
TAN (Solar Energy) Confirmed recovery phase. 17.78-17.85 max risk
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 pivotal still
UUP (Dollar Bull) Have been bearish and said so here-now, 26.10-15 resistance, 25.80 support
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
