August 23, 2018
By Mish Schneider
Apache Crown Dancers wearing black masks, represent the four directions. North, South, East and West.
So far this week, Transportation (IYT) posted a topping pattern based on a new high followed by a high-volume break of the prior day’s lows.
At the same time, Semiconductors tested the key weekly moving average, held it and rallied.
The rotation from Transportation into Semi’s is enough to keep the bears counting on a southerly direction at bay.
Retail (XRT) continues to shine.
After lots of strong earnings in that sector, XRT cleared the price level that prevents it from looking like a top. In other words, the topping pattern did not confirm.
With Tran weak, Tech, Retail strong and the Russell 2000 flat near the all-time highs, does the market have all four directions represented?
Transportation under pressure (or heading south) gives me pause.
Unless IYT holds 202 and rallies back, regardless of what tech does, we are keeping it light.
However, Retail (XRT) heading north, indicates that the bulls are in control.
Semiconductors are not necessarily pointing north at this point.
SMH looks more westernly (consolidating with the possibility its sun will set) until it improves in phase from warning to bullish.
The Russell’s look eastward (consolidating while waiting for the sun to rise). Or maybe more like southeast. I suppose that should IYT go back up, this will as well.
Now, if an Apache Crown dancer shows up wearing a white mask, that represents yet another direction-the one up above.
He is an unpredictable clown who acts as a messenger.
And that’s the point.
We can see the four directions. But it’s the clown who will send us a clear message of which way the market goes from here.
S&P 500 (SPY) 285 was resistance, now support. And a good pivotal number to use if the market sells off.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 169.76 is the big support to hold.
Dow (DIA) 256.75 failed with 255.00 next big support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) 182.65 resistance has become more palpable. 177.50 the 50 DMA support to hold
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