The Market’s Tale of Two Fifth Avenues

December 14, 2016

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

mdaily-20161214Atlas, half-man half-god giant, was a Titan condemned to carry the world on his shoulders for eternity. Here he is in front of 30 Rockefeller Center on Fifth Avenue as he has been since 1937.

In last night’s Daily, I showed you a photo of a holiday window dressing directly across the street from 30 Rock at Saks Fifth Avenue. The mannequin showcases high fashion and lollipops in a “Land of 1000 Delights.”

Today, the Fed announced a 25 bps increase in rates with the expectation of 3 more raises in 2017. Afterwards, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, wearing neither candylicious pink nor Grinch-like green, said the U.S. economic outlook is "highly uncertain."

For now, that answered the question of whether “Janet will bring the market more lollipops and another 1000 delights or just a seasonal window shopping experience?”

In that déjà vu all over again sense from what occurred in August 2015 when investors exited in mass once the Dow hit 18k, today we caught a glimpse of how investors might feel after the Dow nearly hit 20k.

One side of Fifth Avenue lives the promise of delights. On the other side resides Atlas condemned to carry the market on his shoulders.

Which side of Fifth does Trump live on? Yep, just a couple of blocks north on the side of 1000 delights. However, the President-Elect has a clear view of Atlas just across the way.

The market finally registered concern about how the U.S. could fare in 2017. The Modern Family (IWM, SMH, XRT, IBB, IYT, KRE) continued the correction it began on Monday.

Beginning with the Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM), I wondered what the Gremlin on the wing of the Dow plane at 20,000 might look like. IWM seemed like the obvious choice.

IWM has declined the last 3 trading days. With huge volume, tomorrow’s focus will be here. Can IWM hold critical support and resume the rally? What I would watch for.

Transportation (IYT), which literally gave wheels to the recent move higher, could see a correction of about another 7-8% yet still hold the bullish phase. Or, it could digest the Fed reality and shrug it off. Also important to watch.

Semiconductors (SMH), a continued bright spot, did not react at all. Sitting pretty near recent highs, SMH is a wildcard. Same is true for Regional Banks (KRE).

Biotechnology (IBB) threatens the Family most. IBB, already threatening, undermines the market because a lot of speculative money hunts there for trades. Fewer speculators, less liquidity all around.

Without IBB in the game, the second place to look for speculative money is in NASDAQ 100. Not a member of the Family, the tech stocks do attract investors. That in turn, usually entices bargain hunters to also look elsewhere.

Grandma Retail (XRT) reflects consumer confidence. Window shopping fanciful holiday showcases doth not purchasers make. When I stood on Fifth Avenue last week, I certainly thought about the metaphorical juxtaposition of Saks’ hefty price tags, Atlas’ burden of debt and Trump’s Towers.

Which side of Fifth Avenue will the Fed’s legitimate economic concerns and their promise of 3 more rate hikes in 2017 put the Modern Family on? On the Trump or Atlas side?

S&P 500 (SPY) Broke and closed under 227 pivotal support and S1, which it had not broken since December 1st. 224 next support unless it takes back 227 and holds

Russell 2000 (IWM) 134-134.50 pivotal support to watch.

Dow (DIA) In the case of whether yesterday was a blow off or a runaway gap, with today’s double the average daily volume, blow off looks more likely.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. 119.65 now point to hold if good

KRE (Regional Banks) 54.65 pivotal support.

SMH (Semiconductors) 2 tops in 3 days at 72.70. Inside day with 70.75 underlying support.

IYT (Transportation) A huge correction would bring this down to 154. If recaptures and hold 168 nevermind.

IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 275, could see move to 240

XRT (Retail) A break of 45.50 would be where the real fun begins.

IYR (Real Estate) Early November this had a reversal off the lows. 75.80 now should hold if good

GLD (Gold Trust) 108 target and I figure 107 a buy.

SLV (Silver) 16.35 is the place to watch for strength as this looks better than GLD

GDX (Gold Miners) Nasty day but maybe blow off bottom in the works

USO (US Oil Fund) 10.80 back in focus

TAN (Solar Energy) So sad

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 116.35 very big support on a monthly chart. Now, 118.50 resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.50 the 2015 high back in focus

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